Week 7 of the 2018 college football season has a lot of interesting matchups, some of them hugely consequential within the workings of the conference championship races. A few games even have major national implications. In these games, do recent trends figure to continue, or are the current situations enveloping these games so different that you will want to buck the trends? You can decide for yourself, but here are the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football to keep an eye on this week.
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in last 6 when favored by 10.5-21. 16-8 ATS in last 24 as a favorite.
The Penn State Nittany Lions lost twice last season, and one of those losses was to Michigan State on the road. This year, the Lions get the Spartans at home, and they get Michigan State at a time when the Spartans are playing terrible football. MSU was decisively outclassed at home by a Northwestern team which entered Week 6 with a losing record. Penn State did not beat Ohio State a few weeks ago, but James Franklin’s team was up 26-13 midway through the fourth quarter against an opponent which is likely to be in the College Football Playoff. Penn State seems like a good bet to hold up as the favorite in this game.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Georgia Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
This is the hardest game on the board to pick, relative to the trends presented here. Georgia does have the great track record, but if you look at the Bulldogs’ performances this season, they have been inconsistent. Week 6 against Vanderbilt was a little better than previous weeks, but even then, the Bulldogs committed a lot of penalties and are still not operating at peak efficiency. Georgia was very sloppy against Missouri in September and was slow out of the gate against South Carolina before turning on the jets in the second half.
LSU’s Tiger Stadium is likely the toughest road venue Georgia will play in this season. Georgia is a better team, but if it continues to make the mistakes it has been making in previous weeks, LSU could rise up and pull the upset. Georgia is the pick against the spread, but it is not a game which bettors should pick if they have a choice. It is easier to stay away from this one.
Notre Dame is 9-22 ATS in last 31 when favored by 21.5 to 31.
The Irish should buck this trend. Pittsburgh has been poor for much of the season, struggling to cover receivers in the secondary. The Panthers have had a bad secondary for the past few seasons, and Notre Dame now has a quarterback, Ian Book, who pushes the ball down the field and applies constant pressure to the back lines of opposing defenses. Pitt would have had a much better chance against Brandon Wimbush, but since that quarterback change was made by Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly, the Fighting Irish have developed a dramatically more potent offense. Notre Dame should roll here.
Vandy Commodores are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Commodores are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Vanderbilt is reeling. It barely beat Tennessee State, an FCS team, at home a few weeks ago. It got crushed by Georgia and has been physically whipped at the line of scrimmage on a regular basis over the past few weeks. Florida has become a tougher, stronger team up front in wins over Mississippi State and LSU. The Gators should be able to take control of this game in the trenches and continue Vanderbilt’s misery.
Oregon Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
This game lines up well for Oregon. Having the bye is great against Washington, but what also matters is that Washington just played at UCLA in Los Angeles, then had to fly back home and will then make another road trip to Eugene. Oregon should be fresh, and Washington should be tired. Oregon’s Justin Herbert is playing much better than Washington’s Jake Browning in a battle of the two quarterbacks. The Ducks are a solid choice here.
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