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Top 5 Betting Trends for NCAA Football Oct. 20, 2018

Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8 of the 2018 college football season features a couple of interesting matchups in the Pac-12, which has a highly competitive race after Oregon tied Washington atop the Pac-12 North. Alabama will once again take center stage against Tennessee, and a big game in the ACC between Clemson and North Carolina State. Before you wager on those games, take a look at the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football:

Tennessee is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in its last 62 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Alabama has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide are in no danger of losing this game. They are better than Tennessee by a considerable margin. However, will that margin be enough to cover the spread? The status of Alabama starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has made the Crimson Tide’s offense a lot more formidable this season, is uncertain heading into this game. Maybe he will play, but even if he does, will he be as effective as he has previously been? With a healthy Tagovailoa functioning at his best, Alabama is a good bet to score over 40 points against almost every opponent it will face this year, LSU being an exception. Without Tagovailoa, Alabama has to use Jalen Hurts, who isn’t nearly as good a passer. Alabama won’t lose with Hurts, but it might struggle to cover the spread unless it gets a defensive touchdown or a special teams game-breaker.

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NC State is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in its last 40 after a bye week. Clemson just 15-14 ATS in its last 29 as a favorite.

The number on this game is way too large for Clemson. North Carolina State has played Clemson tough the past few years, even at Clemson. The Wolfpack also have a veteran quarterback, Ryan Finley, who isn’t likely to get intimidated by the Tigers. Clemson has an excellent team and should be trusted to win the game straight up, but this figures to be a competitive contest. Moreover, Clemson plays plenty of close games at home. The Tigers had a big escape against Syracuse earlier this season. Last year they almost lost to a mediocre Florida State team. Nothing about this game points to a Clemson blowout.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs Colorado. Colorado is 38-69 ATS in its last 107 October games.

The big news in this game is that Colorado’s star receiver Laviska Shenault is uncertain with an injury suffered this past weekend against USC. Colorado absolutely has to have Shenault healthy and in top form to have any realistic chance of challenging Washington’s defense. The Huskies allowed only 24 points in regulation to an Oregon offense which is likely to put up big numbers for the rest of the season. Colorado won’t cover the spread if Shenault can’t be reasonably effective.

Washington State has covered every game this season (6-0). They are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight where the betting line is between +3 and -3.

The fact that Washington State is coming off a bye week at home helps the Cougars, but what also helps them is that Oregon got beaten up in the win over Washington in Week 7. The Ducks lost offensive lineman Penei Sewell for the rest of the regular season and had a few other players get injured. The Cougars might not win, but they are definitely getting the Ducks at a point in time when Oregon is vulnerable because of a thinner depth chart and the strain of playing big games on consecutive weekends.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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