Week 5 of the 2018 college football season is normally the week of the season when teams which have played non-conference games shift into conference play. Yet, a number of the games on the schedule are still non-conference contests, creating imprecise contexts for many of the games you will consider on the slate. However, here are the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football this week:
UCF has opened as a double-digit favorite against Pittsburgh. The Knights have never been double-digit road favorites against a Power Five team. (Note: The Knights opened as double-digit favorites against North Carolina, but the game was never played thanks to Hurricane Florence.)
The UCF offense is humming along, meeting expectations and standards on a continuous basis. The UCF offense was strong in Week 1. It lapsed a little in Week 2, but not to any alarming degree. The Knights were very potent and effective in Week 4, when they thrashed Florida Atlantic. This is a legitimately strong offense. What should also be considered is that whereas some Florida teams or warm-weather teams can get into trouble when they visit Pittsburgh in late October or anytime in November, UCF is visiting Pittsburgh in late September. Weather should not be a concern. That is a big reason to think that UCF’s offense will be fine. The other big point to remember is that Pitt’s defense just got shredded by a generally bad North Carolina offense. Pitt simply can’t cover receivers. The Pitt secondary has been a problem for a long time. The matchup works in UCF’s favor.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Indiana opened as a 15-point favorite over Rutgers. Indiana hasn’t been favored by more than 14 points on the road in a game since 1990.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are the worst team in a Power 5 conference in major college football this season. They just got crushed by the Buffalo Bulls of the Mid-American Conference, and that came one week after being hammered by the Kansas Jayhawks, a team that will have a tough time winning as many as four games this season. The Jayhawks currently have two wins but must play in the very competitive Big 12 Conference the rest of the way. Rutgers is at the bottom of the barrel, and for that reason alone, Indiana should be seen as being several notches above Rutgers in terms of overall quality.
BYU has already pulled off two double-digit upsets this year, first against Arizona (+11.5 in Week 1) then against Wisconsin (+23.5 in Week 3). The Cougars are 16.5-point underdogs at Washington.
The spread on this game is far too big, much as Washington was favored by far too many points when it was favored by 19 against Arizona State the week before. Washington simply doesn’t have a dynamic offense right now. The Huskies have not scored more than 27 points against any FBS team this season. Their offensive line has been hit by injuries. BYU could very easily win this game. It is not likely to win, but the contest should be relatively close heading into the fourth quarter. If BYU can get a pick-six or a punt return for a touchdown in the fourth, it could win.
Ohio State has the second-highest scoring offense in America at 54.5 points per game. The Buckeyes were averaging 49.3 points per game when they headed to Beaver Stadium two years ago and were beaten 24-21. This is the first time PSU has been a home underdog since that game against the Buckeyes in 2016.
The Ohio State passing game has not been consistent the previous two seasons against Penn State, but this year with Dwayne Haskins replacing J.T. Barrett at quarterback, the Buckeyes have become better at pushing the ball up the field in the passing game. That is a plus for OSU heading into Happy Valley this Saturday night. On the other hand, Ohio State’s pass rush — which won the game last year against Penn State — will be worse. Nick Bosa, the team’s best pass rusher, is out with an injury.
The big question here might be Penn State’s defense and how prepared it is to face OSU. PSU’s defense wobbled at times against Illinois, a team which is not a good source of preparation for the skill level of Ohio State. The Buckeyes, having beaten a high-quality team in TCU two weeks ago, deserve the edge here.
Alabama opened as a 51.5-point favorite over UL Lafayette. Since 2003, there have been 49 games featuring spreads of at least 50 points. Those teams are 49-0 straight-up and 28-22-1 ATS. The Crimson Tide have been favored by 50+ three times in the Nick Saban era, going 3-0 straight-up and 0-3 ATS. Last year, Howard upset UNLV as a 45-point underdog in what was the largest upset in college football history
The Alabama win against Texas A&M was relatively easy, but the Tide were not efficient in the second half. Nick Saban still sees things with his team that need to be cleaned up. This is a game in which Alabama can get a 21-0 first-quarter lead. If it does, covering the number should not be a problem at all.
