Matt Boyd (0-1, 5.40 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (42-38) meet Wade Miley (7-7, 4.38 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (36-44) in the last of a four-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 11-2 and Boston leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 7:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jul. 2 and will air on NESN and RSN.
In his last start, Boyd pitched 6.2 innings, giving up four runs and striking out seven in a 4-0 loss to the Rangers. Josh Donaldson (.302, 60 Rs, 19 HRs, 51 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 3 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. In his career against the Blue Jays, Miley is 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA. He meets a solid Toronto offense that’s batting .266. Hanley Ramirez (.282, 42 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Toronto, a -133 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Boston. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is nine runs. When playing as the favorite, the Blue Jays have a 25-17 record and overall money line at -14. Over the last 10 games, they have performed poorly when playing as the favorite (2-5). The Blue Jays have the most prolific offense in the entire AL, averaging 5.4 runs per game. The Blue Jays rank fourth in the AL in hits with 8.9 per game.
Switching gears, the Red Sox come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (15-15) and an overall money line of -1,392. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 6-4 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 5-2 record. The Red Sox average 3.1 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. Boston’s pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game against teams from the AL East, higher than their season average of 4.6.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Red Sox in their previous 12 games this season, earning a 7-5 record. This game will feature Miley (LHP) on the mound against the Blue Jays, who have an 8-3 home and 11-5 overall record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Red Sox will be the left-hander Boyd. They sport an 8-11 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Toronto is 24-16, while Boston is 17-20.
The Blue Jays are coming into this matchup after a high-scoring game where they scored a whopping 11 runs. The Red Sox have a 0-7 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-37. The Blue Jays have a 6-29 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 12th in home runs, Boston has hit 77 this season. Toronto ranks second with 104 home runs.
Ranking seventh, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.68 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.86.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .780. Boston ranks in the bottom half at 17th with an OPS of .714.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 13-35. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 26-27 record.
