The Toronto Raptors travel to Miami to take on the Heat in Game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, pitting the fifth-ranked offense against the fourth-ranked defense. Action starts at 8:00 pm ET on Monday, May 9 and can be seen on TNT and C+D.
The Heat fell to the Raptors 95-91 on Saturday. Dwyane Wade was the game’s high scorer, finishing with 38 points.
Half-court execution will be at a premium as the Heat rank 27th in the league in possessions per game (95.0), while the Raptors are 28th (94.9). Also, the Raptors’s fifth-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 107.1) will face off against the fourth-ranked defense of the Heat (defensive efficiency of 101.7).
The Heat have gone 53-39 Straight Up (SU) and 49-42-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Teams routinely struggle to score points against the Heat, who allow only 97.7 points per game. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Heat, who allow a field goal percentage of only .438.
On the other side, Toronto has a SU record of 62-30 and an ATS record of 47-44-1. In Eastern Conference games, Toronto has gone 62-30 SU and 47-44-1 ATS. The Raptors allow just 97.8 points per game, ranking them fourth in the league.
In their previous meeting this season, Toronto beat Miami, bumping its SU record over the last 10 meetings to 7-3. Furthermore, the Raptors lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor
Notes
Toronto ranks 18th in points per game with 101.7, while Miami ranks third in points allowed with an average of 97.7 given up.
Toronto ranks 18th in points per away game with 99.6 points, while Miami ranks third in points allowed at home with 97.0.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Raptors are 51-5 on the season. When the Heat score fewer than 100, they are a losing 17-28.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Raptors are just 11-25 this season. Miami is a stellar 36-11 when registering triple digits.
The Heat have a defensive rating of 101.7, fourth-best in the NBA. The Raptors also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 107.1 (ranked fifth).
Ranked fourth in the NBA, Miami has an average field goal percentage of 47.0%. Toronto is 11-16 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
On average, Miami attempts 18.0 three pointers and Toronto attempts 23.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Heat have a 1-5 record while the Raptors have a solid 24-13 record.
Miami has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.55 this season (ranked 20th), while Toronto ranks lower at 23rd with an A/TO of 1.51.
The Miami Heat rebound 44.4 times per game and are ranked 10th. Ranked 16th, the Toronto Raptors rebound 43.3 times per game.
The Toronto Raptors rank 16th in offensive rebounding, while the Miami Heat rank fourth in defensive rebounding.
Though Miami is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 12.6% (ranked seventh), Toronto has a superb 37-11 record SU when its TOV% is 12.6% or greater.
