Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-2) gets his rematch against Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1) in a battle for middleweight supremacy on Sept. 15 in Las Vegas Vegas. The Triple G vs. Canelo fight will be on HBO.
Many boxing experts see this as the biggest fight of the 2018 calendar year. The first fight produced an estimated 1.3 million PPV buys, so the intrigue is certainly high.
The rematch was originally scheduled for May, but a positive steroid test on the part of Alvarez forced the re-schedule. If anything, the questions that arose from the positive test may result in more PPV buys. If Alvarez was on steroids before, will he appear sluggish in his return? Will Alvarez come out and be more aggressive to prove he doesn’t need steroids to perform? Will father time come calling on Golovkin, who is 36 years old now heading into the rematch with the 27 year old Alvarez?
What happened in the first Triple G vs. Canelo match?
There was a lot of hype for the showdown, which saw Golovkin bringing the WBC, WBA and IBF world titles at 160 pounds to the dance. Alvarez came to the table with the full backing of Oscar De La Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions and in a post-Floyd Mayweather Jr. world, Alvarez was widely considered the biggest draw in boxing. Golovkin had been looking for a big name opponent that would translate to a big payday and Golovkin entered the fight as the business “B” side despite being the champion.
The two finally met back in September of 2017, and though the tensely fought contest was light on highlight-reel material, the controversial split draw outcome left many wanting a more definitive outcome. Most observers felt that Golovkin had taken the fight with his greater activity throughout, but Alvarez closed strong. In the end, the first judge had the fight a 114-114 draw, while the second judge had it for Golovkin and the third judge had it for Alvarez.
Triple G vs. Canelo Betting Strategy
So, the first fight went the distance. What does that mean for the second fight? A quick look at the current odds and a flashback to the odds for the first fight reveals that the books have the exact same odds now that they posted on fight week last year.
Triple G is coming in as a -166 favorite at some of the books with the fight a week away. That means your going to be risking $166 to win back $100 on Golovkin. If you want to be on Canelo, a book that has Triple G at -166 will likely have Alvarez around +142. That means a $100 risk on Alvarez winds up paying you back $142.
Triple G vs. Canelo Odds
Sat 9/15 – T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada – HBO PPV
Middleweight 12 rounds –
Saul Alvarez +140 o11½ -230
Gennady Golovkin -160 u11½ +190
Middleweight 12 rounds – odds from September of 2017
Saul Alvarez +140 o9½ -230
Gennady Golovkin -160 u9½ +190
Triple G vs. Canelo Props
It is conceivable that both men will come out more aggressive as they hunt a more definitive outcome than the first time. Now that the two men have experienced twelve rounds together, they may have some insight they can exploit. That possibility especially exists for Alvarez, who looked to be coming on in the last three rounds of the first bout.
Alvarez / Golovkin goes distance -176
Fight won’t go distance +138
Alvarez wins by 12 round decision +200
Not Alvarez by 12 round decision +200
Golovkin wins by 12 round decision +175
Not Golovkin by 12 round decision -210
Alvarez / Golovkin draw +1500
Both fighters knocked down +1100
Fight end in Rounds 1-3 +1000
Fight end in Rounds 4-6 +700
Fight end in Rounds 7-9 +650
Fight end in Rounds 10-12 +700
Triple G vs. Canelo Prediction
This one is going to go the distance. The first one did, and there has been talk of a trilogy being the best way to fully monetize the rivalry. For some reason, it is the second fight of most trilogies that is looked back upon a the least dramatic (see the Ali vs Frazier set as one example). Of course every fight is different, and they did not exactly come out guns blazing in the first go around, but this one has 12 full rounds written all over it.
Golovkin’s best option to win is to win by KO. The champion will be running a risk leaving it to the judges if he cannot score the stoppage win.
Will we see a third Triple G vs. Canelo fight?
One other thing to consider here in the world of big-time boxing. There is always the trilogy of fights to present, so a controversial outcome of some type may develop on the 15th of September.
Could these two fight to a draw for a second time? Stranger things have happened. A win for Golovkin is the best path to a third match, as Alvarez could allow some time to pass and fight an older Golovkin down the line. Alvarez will always equate a big payday for Golovkin, so even though he is going to be in a better negotiating position coming off a win, Alvarez will always bring the biggest money to the table.
What about the Byrd?
“The Byrd” is Nevada judge Adelaide Byrd, who was widely condemned for handing in a 118-110 scorecard in favor of Alvarez for the first fight.
The bottom line here is that Byrd has been a problem judge before and she is unlikely to get the nod to work the rematch. Nevertheless, the Nevada State Boxing Commission rallied to her defense in the immediate aftermath of the first fight and she has continued to operate as a judge, working both boxing and MMA.
At this point the Nevada Commission is unlikely to put Byrd to work for the Golovkin/Alvarez rematch but before the original May date, some of the books were carrying a prop on whether Byrd would get the call.
