The UFC 173 card scheduled for the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on May 14th features a Welterweight fight between Jake Ellenberger and Robbie Lawler. Both men are top contenders, with Lawler coming off a title shot loss. Ellenberger is also coming off a setback, losing to Rory MacDonald, so for both men this match will affect their immediate future – a loss means not being a part of the title picture until at least the end of 2015.
Right now, the books are favoring Lawler at almost 3 to 1 (-280) with the return on Ellenberger at around (+200). Ellenberger especially has his back to the wall, as this fight will definitely put to the test the questions that have followed him around.
It is no secret Ellenberger is at his best in the opening round, where his fury and explosion are at their peak. His output has dropped off in round 2 and on. Now if he can blitz Lawler and take him out, he will have beaten a top name, but the questions will still be there.
Considering Lawler is a long time veteran of the highest levels who is not short on athleticism himself, Ellenberger is unlikely to take him out early. Johny Hendricks could not take Lawler out over 5 rounds, so Lawler is going to be happy to extend the fight and make Ellenberger work. That is where the questions about Ellenberger’s gas tank and his ability to finish a fight that extends itself will all come in to play again.
The real problem for Ellenberger is that the scenario of him tiring plays right into Lawler’s hands. Lawler is one of the premier big punch counter fighters in MMA today. If you have an opportunity, look up on YOUTUBE who Melvin Manhoeff is, watch a couple of highlights. Then watch the Manhoef fight and watch how excellent Lawler is at avoiding the big strikes, and how he stays with the fight until he puts Melvin to sleep.
If Ellenberger tires, Lawler is capable of finding his spot and taking him out. Lawler was very critical of himself for not closing out the Hendricks title fight, that he was cautious, so he will not be sitting back this fight and letting it go to the judges. Ellenberger is going to have to do something he has not done before to win this fight.
