The Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia plays host to the UFC 174 card headlined by the Flyweight title bout between Demetrious Johnson and Ali Bagautinov. The main card is packed with fights that have tight lines at the sportbooks, as opposed to the main event where Johnson is a big time (-565) favorite. Let’s take a look.
The evening’s co-main event features top welterweights Tyrone Woodley and Rory MacDonald. MacDonald opened the favorite at some of the sport books, but Woodley has emerged as a (-140) favorite on fight week, with the return on MacDonald sitting at (+123). The line reflects two evenly matched athletes, and both men could wind up with a title shot if they are able to win convincingly, as they both already reside in or near the top 5 of the weight class.
Woodley has put together back to back wins, taking out Josh Koscheck and earning a TKO win over perennial #1 contender Carlos Condit. Woodley lost a bit of traction with a loss to Jake Shields, but a win over MacDonald to cap a 3 fight winning streak will put that behind him nicely.
MacDonald’s only loss in his last 7 fights is to Robbie Lawler, and that via split decision, yet he has seen his ranking slip. At one point in his career, MacDonald’s only obstacle to a title shot was that Georges St Pierre, his training partner, held the belt. Well that is no longer the case, and MacDonald needs a win to keep his name in the mix, and to re-take the ranking spot that Woodley seems to have leapfrogged him for.
Another match with a line closer than 2 to 1 is the heavyweight clash between Brendan Schaub and Andrei Arlovski. Right now Schaub, the ‘Ultimate Fighter’ alumni, is favored at (-140) with the return on Arlovski sitting around (+120). There may be some value in the veteran Arlovski, who remains a mobile heavyweight with punching power and boxing technique. Schaub is on a two fight winning streak, though wins over Matt Mitrione and Lavar Johnson may not be enough to prepare him for Arlovksi, who has the added motivation of returning to the big show, where he has not fought since UFC 82 back in 2008.
