With the weigh-ins happening for UFC 177, the Renan Barao–TJ Dillashaw re-match was almost a certainty, but the match has been cancelled because Barao apparently feinted at some point in the lead up to the weigh-ins. The UFC holds together however, as regional champion Joe Soto steps in as a late replacement with one day to go.
In many ways, it is a disaster, as this UFC 177 card has already gone a lot of changes, including a changed main event. Kudos to both of the fighters, Joe Soto and TJ Dillashaw for accepting the match under the circumstances. Though this type of thing happens with a lot of frequency at the lower levels, most UFC fighters either decide to play it cautious or leave the decision to managers and decision-makers. Additionally, the hurdles of licensing, making weight and getting into fight mode on short notice all must be overcome. The fight is reportedly for the UFC’s Bantamweight title, so Soto made weight. His last fight was a mere three weeks ago.
Some books are starting to post odds for the new fight and the first numbers are coming in at roughly 15 to 1 for Dillashaw. Now, the massive opening line makes sense under most circumstances, but may bear a deeper look here.
Dillashaw is the champion, and he did beat the dominant champion in the weight class which was Barao. He was prepared for this to be his re-match for Barao, so you must assume that Dillashaw was coming in for the fight in the best condition possible. But, Dillashaw still has just 12 MMA fights and is going to need to win and he is now the big name. On the national and international scene, Soto is a non-factor as he fights for a regional California promotion. He had a run with Bellator and he left there with a winning record over solid competition. He is a confident fighter with experience, and if he was looking for a chance and an opportunity and feels ready, he can be a very dangerous opponent for Dillashaw. At the end of the day, Dillashaw may get his hand raised, but Soto’s chances based on skill once the cage door shuts are indeed better than the books are thinking right now.
