The UFC 185 card scheduled for Dallas, Texas on March 14 will be headlined by lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis title defense against Brazil’s Rafael Dos Anjos. Right now, Pettis has opened a solid (-350) favorite, with Dos Anjos pitching back at (+260). The early over/under for this five round bout is sitting at 2.5 rounds, with the over paying at (-170) and the under at (+140).
Pettis has really come into his own after a rocky 1-1 start with the UFC that saw the win come via split decision over Jeremy Stephens. Since then he has been rolling over people on his way to the championship. After a long layoff, he defeated Gilbert Melendez in his first title defense. The win over Melendez, as well as legitimate wins over Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson (to win the title) all came within two rounds. There may be some value there, as Dos Anjos lists a submission loss because of a jaw injury, but he has never been caught. Neither had Melendez, and that is not including the chances Pettis gets a stop via strikes.
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For his part, Dos Anjos has been a hard working fighter who has paid his dues. He also owns quality wins over Cerrone and Henderson, and he stopped Henderson with a big punch early. His last outing saw him win against Nate Diaz via unanimous decision, and he has a lot of fights that have gone the distance in his career.
If the fight does go long, Pettis has made short work of his recent opponents, but he logged a full five rounds against Henderson for the WEC belt back in 2011, so Pettis actually has the edge there, having gone 25 minutes. Dos Anjos, despite having over thirty fights, has never been in the championship rounds.
It is a tall order for Dos Anjos if Pettis is running on all cylinders. The recent Melendez fight is a good measuring stick as Melendez likely won the first round, and that is the blueprint that Dos Anjos will need to follow to win.
Dos Anjos will need to crowd and ground Pettis and make it an ugly fight. Overall explosiveness will be a factor, as Pettis turned the fight around very quickly in the second round, and there wasn’t a third.
