The UFC starts 2016 with a bang when Robbie Lawler’s welterweight title gets put on the line against the long-time contender and fan-favorite Carlos Condit. While this match up is enough to get MMA excited about UFC 195, one can look further down the card at the prelims for more intriguing match ups and UFC 195 odds. Most noticeably, Joe Duffy and Dustin Poirier will headline their segment on Fight Pass in a rescheduled bout meant for Fight Night: Dublin. In addition, former bantamweight contender Michael “Mayday” McDonald returns in the headlining prelim bout on Fox Sports 1. These UFC 195 prelims are not to be missed! Read on for UFC 195 odds and predictions.
Sheldon Westcott (-160) vs. Edgar Garcia (+135)
Battling for their first win in the UFC, Sheldon Westcott and Edgar Garcia start the night’s action off first on Fight Pass. Westcott, the The Ultimate Fighter: Nations finalist, comes into the bout as a slight favorite over the 31 year old. In addition, Westcott will bring a fairly significant reach advantage which should help him fight long and avoid the explosive power punching and grappling game of Edgar Garcia. Expect Westcott to hold a technical edge on the feet, and overall stay more composed as Garcia tends to get a little wild. One thing to watch for is Westcott’s guillotine; he has all 3 submission wins via guillotine whereas Garcia is coming off a loss via guillotine. I see Westcott staying long and rangy on the feet (assuming he stays mobile – if not, he could get KO’d) and ultimately countering a Garcia takedown with a guillotine for the first or second round submission finish.
Joe Soto (-110) vs. Michinori Tanaka (-110)
Two very exciting grapplers will take the stage next as former bantamweight title contender (if you can really say that) Joe Soto meets Japan’s Michinori Tanaka. Surprisingly, these UFC 195 odds are dead even although I expect them to favor Soto the closer we get to the bout. Soto is a purebred grappler with some solid striking skills; he moves his head well and throws tight boxing combinations, but unfortunately has been knocked out hard three times in his career (including two most recently). Soto is very aggressive no matter where the fight goes, so look for that to be a big factor in this bout considering Tanaka is a bit more passive. Tanaka hold zero (T)KO finishes, so it’s not very likely that he has the power to capitalize on Soto’s questionable chin. Instead, expect a fast-paced grappling war in this bout. I know Soto has competed and done very well in submission-only grappling (EBI), but Tanaka can definitely hold his own. I think Soto’s pace and pressure will overwhelm Tanaka and score him a well-earned unanimous decision victory.
Joe Duffy (-185) vs. Dustin Poirier (+160)
It’s rare that we get this valuable of a match up this early in the night, but an unfortunate concussion suffered by Joe Duffy scrapped a previous pairing between Duffy and Dustin Poirier. This is could definitely be a big x-factor coming into this bout: how bad was the concussion and has Duffy’s brain fully healed from it? Continuing on, this is a tremendous match up between two dark horses in the lightweight division. Poirier is 2-0 since coming up from featherweight; not having to cut the weight seems to have improved his ability to take a punch as he has been able to showcase his head-hunting striking game without the fear of getting dropped by incoming counters. Duffy on the other hand tends to have a more complex striking game as he throws diverse punch-kick combinations on the feet, making sure to attack the body regularly. Both men have very potent submission games as well – I see this fight being a striking match as long as it lasts.
On paper, I favor Duffy in this match up. Poirier is a threat on the feet, but I think Duffy is just one-step ahead of him in the striking department in terms of complexity and understanding the finer nuiances of striking. Poirier has power, and his aggressiveness can overwhelm many opponents, but I don’t see that working against the highly experienced Joseph Duffy. Look for Poirier to come forward early on and find some early success, but Duffy will land counters to either set up a TKO, or a potential submission in the first round.
Of course, this could all go in favor of Poirier depending on the severity of Duffy’s concussion.
*Stay tuned for more UFC 195 odds and predictions!
