The UFC starts 2016 with a bang when Robbie Lawler’s welterweight title gets put on the line against the long-time contender and fan-favorite Carlos Condit. This match up is destined for entertainment as both men have violent and fast-paced tendencies. In the co-main event, we have a heavyweight clash that may just determine the guy next up for the UFC Heavyweight Championship being contended for in 2016. The UFC 195 odds are another to keep an eye on as some of these fights may be worth putting money on. Let’s get it to it – here are the UFC 195 odds and predictions for the main card!
Tony Sims (-130) vs. Abel Trujillo (+110)
I can’t think of a better way to begin a fight card than with Abel Trujillo taking on an up-and-comer like Tony Sims. Both Trujillo and Sims are bangers who like to let their fists fly every chance they can get, hold one-punch knockout power, and opt to avoid most grappling exchanges. Trujillo has a never-say-die attitude on the feet as he’s willing to take punches in order to give them back in blistering return. He has been known to gas himself out in the process, but it makes for an exciting affair during its duration. Sims comes into this bout fairly inexperienced in the UFC’s bright lights, so that could definitely play a factor – especially considering the intimidating approach Trujillo has. As far as skills go, Sims is a talented striker who can be a bit more calculated than Trujillo at times, and equally as deadly with his punches. While both Trujillo and Sims have shown good takedown skills in the past, I think Sims will be the one more likely to shoot and bring the fight to the ground. To do this though, he’ll need to step into the fire. Sims is the slight favorite in these UFC 195 odds, but I’m picking the dog in Trujillo to overwhelm Sims early on as he’s able to punish Sims in the pocket in order to pick up the first round finish.
Diego Brandao (-210) vs. Brian Ortega (+180)
Much like Sims/Trujillo, this bout has tenacity written all over it, but in a very different way. In Diego Brandao, you have similarities to Abel Trujillo – a guy who is ready to bite down on his mouth piece, press forward, and overwhelm his opponent with shear brute force. Brandao is also a crafty, explosive grappler who can snag submissions seemingly out of nowhere. In most recent history, Brandao has been working on keeping his explosive nature contained and sustained over the period of the fight as to not waste all his energy in the first round. The underdog, Ortega, is a promising up-and-comer who has shown exciting stand up mixed in with aggressive submission grappling. Ortega is excellent off of his back, and is more-than-willing to throw reckless, wild attacks on the feet because of his confidence on the mat. How that will work against an equally-as-skilled grappler in Brandao is going to be an interesting question. Brandao has shown to be unreliable in the past, and I’m not so sure he has totally converted to being a more economic fighter, so I’m going to pick the underdog again in Brian Ortega. Look for “T-City” to be over-powered early on, but he’ll pick up rounds two and three as he lays it on late against a fatiguing Brandao with wild stand up attacks, and aggressive submission attempts off his back en route to a fun split decision victory.
Albert Tumenov (-235) vs. Lorenz Larkin (+195)
Up next is an extremely intruiging bout that any striking enthusiast should be looking forward to as Albert “Einstein” Tumenov takes on the rapid-rising welterweight contender Lorenz Larkin. Both men prefer to stand and trade on the feet, and aren’t short on tools to get the job done either. While Larkin tends to have a deeper bag of tricks than the more conventional Tumenov, he also tends to get hit a little more. This will play right into Tumenov’s game which is based around his eastern European boxing style. Tumenov’s favorite punch is his left hook, and he almost always finds a home for it. Look for Larkin to come out and make this a competitive scrap as he goes tit-for-tat with Tumenov, but eventually he’s going to eat just a few too many lefts from “Einstein” and get put on the mat. From there, I predict Tumenov to finish from top position with ground and pound.
Stipe Miocic (-225) vs. Andrei Arlovski (-190)
In the co-main event of UFC 195 we have a pivotal heavyweight clash between Stipe Miocic and the resurging Andrei Arlovski. Many believe this will crown the “next-in-line” in the heavyweight division, and I think if either man picks up a spectacular finish, this could be a very real possibility. In Miocic, you have a meat-and-potatoes fighter with an iron chin who mixes his boxing combinations together well with his offensive wrestling and ground and pound. To be honest, he’s a fairly simplistic fighter, but very effective as his only recent loss is to former champion Junior dos Santos. Across from him will be Jackson/Winklejohn representative, Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski. He has made a dramatic career resurgence since dropping 4 straight; however this is all history as shown by his current 4-0 return in the UFC. Arlovski is a talented stand-up fighter who has a whole plethora of striking knowledge, as well as some very underrated- grappling skills; not to mention one of the most athletic fighters in the heavyweight division.
Look for Arlovski’s speed and technical edge to get the better of Miocic in the early going. I’m going out on a limb here and picking Arlovski to pull off a dramatic, first round KO. It won’t be a fight to full represent Miocic’s skill, but I think Miocic lacks the technical striking defense to deal with Andrei’s wicked striking offense. Look for Arlovski to open up patient, and land a big counter on Miocic to stop him early.
Robbie Lawler (-110) vs. Carlos Condit (-110)
This won’t be my main break down of this bout, but I will give a litle preview here. These UFC 195 odds show Lawler and Condit as dead even, and I think that’s fair. While the most recent memories don’t serve Condit justice as a single victory over Thiago Alves is all we really have in terms of recent Condit performances, one must not forget the competitive bout he had with Georges St. Pierre and his previous title run. With that said, Robbie Lawler is an entire different animal I believe. I think this bout will put Lawler and Condit in the state of mind to bring the best out of them. Condit has struggled with explosive, powerful wrestlers like Tyron Woodly, Johny Hendricks, and GSP while Lawler has shown to be hittable against rangy strikers like Rory MacDonald and Nick Diaz (old example, I know). With that said, Lawler will going against someone willing to challenge his toughness, power, and grit – attributes that Lawler seemingly has on lock.
This is going to be one hell of an epic card, so make sure you read up all you can on this because there will be more UFC 195 odds discussion and predictions coming soon!
