Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi will serve as the co-main event at UFC 204. It’s a highly anticipated middleweight bout that’s nearly seven years in the making. A breakdown on the main event: Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson II is coming soon. Manchester is in for a treat!
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi
At a glance, this fight is very competitive on paper. Belfort is a knockout artist capable of blitzing and finishing anybody while Mousasi is a savvy, well-rounded fighter with championship-caliber skill. Belfort may be a +270 underdog, but he has more than a puncher’s chance at winning this fight. Mousasi’s -330 odds are pretty astounding considering his past inconsistencies too. Nevertheless, odds favor Mousasi in this tilt; make no mistake about it – both are dangerous and capable of winning the fight anywhere it goes. Check out these other UFC 204 odds while you’re at it.
Let’s start with Mousasi and his striking…
Gegard is a long-time veteran of the sport. It’s almost impossible to wrap your head around the amount of hours he has spent fighting in MMA, kickboxing, and grappling. Yet he’s still fresh and in great physical shape because of how little damage he takes in his fights.
That’s what sound mechanics, schooled technique, and off-the-charts fight IQ can do for you.
Mousasi’s tactical striking prowess allows him to take minimal damage. He’s excellent at distance management; he stays outside his opponent’s range of offense, but always pressures forward to keep himself in position to do damage. This lets him see punches coming so he can react with either a parry or slip. When he’s pressured or swarmed on the feet, he can easily tie up and take the fight to the ground. Mousasi has many options for avoiding damage on the feet.
However, he has been too confident at times.
This confidence has led to sloppy or predictable movement.
Against Uriah Hall, Mousasi got off to an excellent start, virtually unopposed. Mousasi then got a little too relaxed in the second round, and ducked into Hall’s spinning back kick. Mousasi may have you think that this was a flukey loss, but the truth is he was being predictable. Nevertheless, Mousasi almost always comes into the Octagon as the more skillful and knowledgeable striker.
Typically, Mousasi’s jab is a weapon of choice. While not overly powerful, it establishes distance. This lets him know how to line other attacks up, but also how he needs to move to avoid incoming strikes. Another important asset of Mousasi’s game is his counter-striking. His comfort with striking allows him to see openings against pressuring opponents. Mousasi likes to combine his counter-striking approach with aggressive footwork. You’ll often see Mousasi backing his opponent against the cage, but waiting for his opponent to throw so he can counter.
Mousasi is also talented on the mat…
While Mousasi brings in an incredibly sophisticated and developed striking game, he’s just as dangerous (if not more so) on the mat. Mousasi has struggled with takedown defense earlier in his MMA career; perhaps due to Mousasi’s confidence and comfort with his jiu-jitsu on bottom. After losing a contested decision to Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal in Strikeforce (which he lost simply by being taken down a lot), Mousasi’s takedown defense has gotten increasingly better.
On the flipside, Mousasi is quite the venomous offensive grappler; 12 submission wins supports this. Not only submissions, but he has a knack for finding openings to land strikes too. He had no problems putting Thales Leites and Costas Philippou on their backs, and dominating with ground and pound. Once again, Mousasi’s attacks never seem very thunderous, but they’re accurate and act as a means to set up other attacks.
Additionally, Mousasi possesses quite the opportunistic mindset. Any lapse in focus or technique of the opponent is immediately capitalized on; this is extremely prevelant in grappling transitions and takedown attempts.
Ultimately…
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi could very well highlight Mousasi’s advantage in technical striking and grappling. Mousasi has always been the fighter with the skills to be champion, but didn’t quite have the motivation or consistency to pull it off. He should have no shortage of motivation in this bout. This is going to be a dangerous Gegard Mousasi.
But standing in his way is Vitor Belfort…
Belfort is a fighter I like to describe as a tornado. When in range, Belfort is probably the most dangerous fighter to be exchanging strikes with. His hand speed is blistering quick, he hits with power and variety, and his killer instinct is the scariest in the game. However, if you are outside of his range, Belfort quickly becomes limited as a striker. He’ll spend most of the time waiting, calculating a blitz, rather than establish any long-range offense. Furthermore, the closer you move to the “eye of the storm”, the less threatening he becomes too. Chris Weidman and “Jacare” Souza both showed how you can snuff him out by taking him down, tiring him out, and smashing him from top position.
While this may seem overly critical, it should be noted that the days of using testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) or done, and he looks a lot less explosive without it. But don’t be mistaken – the skills that made Belfort one of the most feared middleweights still exist within the Brazilian’s compact frame. He may not be able to sustain it like he used to, but Belfort is still ultra-dangerous in the early going.
Belfort’s weapons…
Virtually all of his striking at distance involves left round kicks to the body and head, and then well-timed swarms started off by a left straight or left uppercut. As a southpaw, Belfort relies almost exclusively on his left side weapons when at distance. Because he doesn’t establish much of anything else, Gegard Mousasi could be able to utilize his jab effectively so long as he acknowledges Belfort’s kicks. After landing a few kicks to the legs or body, Belfort will mask it and go high. Ironically, this technique knocked out both Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping.
Once Belfort hurts his opponent, or he decides to pull the trigger, it’s virtually an all-in effort. It’s punches in bunches, each with devastating force and nasty intentions.
The problem with this is resource management. Now that he’s off TRT, it’s fair to assume the 39 year old is physically diminishing. I don’t know whether Belfort will be able to rally up multiple swarms which is why I expect Belfort to spend a lot of time calculating and measuring.
Let’s acknowledge Belfort’s ground game…
He showed us a glimpse of it when he nearly broke Jon Jones’s arm in his short-notice title fight at light-heavyweight. While he didn’t secure the submission, it shows that Belfort is more than capable on the mat. However, I seriously question whether Belfort’s wrestling is going to be good enough to utilize any grappling skills. Like I pointed out before, Weidman and Souza absolutely had their way with Belfort once they took him down. Mousasi doesn’t have the physical strength of those two men, but he does have the skill and technique.
Let’s not forget what Mousasi did to Babalu Sobral either
The Verdict:
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi is a very interesting match up, but a couple factors cause me to lean towards Mousasi. On the feet, I really like the way he pressures, but still stays defensive as he looks for counters. This can be used to bait Belfort and lead him into counters or a takedown. I also think that a properly-motivated Mousasi isn’t going to make the same mistakes he made against Uriah Hall.
For me, this fight comes down to whether or not Mousasi can establish himself early. If he can, then the jab and long-range striking is going to pick Belfort apart as the Brazilian is not equipped for a striking chessmatch. Sudden explosions are Belfort’s game, but at this stage in his career they are too unreliable, especially against a technician like Mousasi. Furthermore, if Mousasi finds himself in top position, it could be over real quick.
Ultimately, I’m picking Mousasi to win late in the first round with a TKO. We may see Belfort have a few good moments, but a motivated Mousasi is going to stay defensively sound, and use his intelligent striking to pick him apart. If the two lock up, I see Mousasi getting on top and delivering enough punishment for a stoppage.
