UFC 228, which is scheduled for Sept. 8 in Dallas is headlined by a welterweight title bout between champion Tyron Woodley (18-3-1) and undefeated challenger Darren Till (17-0-1).
Woodley vs. Till Analysis
Woodley earned the UFC’s welterweight title with a stoppage win over rugged Robbie Lawlor and has gone 1-0-1 in title defenses, both against striking wiz Stephen Thompson.
Till comes from the fighting city of Liverpool, England and already talks about fighting for his legacy. He is undefeated and enters the fight with Woodley full of confidence. Till spent almost 4 years honing his MMA skills in Brazil, fighting much of his pre-UFC career in the South American country’s tough regional scene.
As for Woodley, he talks about how he feels disrespected at times, by both the UFC and the fanbase. You can’t help but get the feeling the UFC would like to see Till pull this one out. The potential trash talking around a Till vs Colby Covington match has to appeal to the UFC, while Woodley has been more enamored with letting his fighting do the talking.
The British Factor
A Brit like Till, with a rabid hometown following, has the potential to move the line in his favor. You have to remember that online betting and sports betting are legal in England, so Till’s fanbase is more exposed to betting in general.
With British money pouring in on Till’s side of the line, you have to ask yourself, should Woodley be a wider favorite based on just in-ring accomplishments, physicality and skill?
Odds:
Darren Till +105
Tyron Woodley -125
You’ll want to look for the over/under on this fight, with an eye on the over. All of Woodley’s title fights have gone the distance.
That isn’t all. Till is a scrapper who likes to mix it up on his feet but doesn’t have one-punch knock-out power. In six UFC fights, Till has gone the distance four times.
Is Woodley going to fight his cautious, mistake-free style that is likely to leave the fight in the hands of the judges? At this level, you can enter a fight with all the intentions in the world of changing up the pace or style, but many times fighters fall back on their old habits.
Prediction: Woodley is going to find himself in a dogfight but will pull it out late in the fight and win via unanimous decision.
Montana vs. Shevchenko analysis
The first 125-pound ladies champ in women’s history is Nicco Montana (4-2), and “The Ultimate Fighter 26” season winner is a major underdog as she faces Valentina Shevchenko (15-3).
Montana is fighting as a major underdog, an unusual spot for a UFC champion. The bottom line is she has six pro fights under her belt and is a relative novice. The UFC had its initial TUF final fall apart and they chose to match Montana with veteran Roxanne Modafferi. They could have turned to the TUF 26 roster for Montana’s first challenge.
Instead, they brought in Shevchenko, who more than held her own in the rugged bantamweight division. Shevchenko has extended the 135-pound champion Amanda Nunes for eight rounds over the course of two fights. Shevchenko’s shot at the belt came last September and she managed to convince one judge she won the fight. Shevchenko also owns a win over Holly Holm andproved she can make 125 pounds with a February win over Priscilla Cachoeira.
The UFC 227 PPV saw longtime men’s flyweight champion lose in what would have been his 12th title defense. Johnson, was a massive -600 favorite over American Wrestler Henry Cejudo, whom he had beaten convincingly the first time the two met. It is telling that Shevchenko is a towering -900 favorite over Montana in this one.
Odds:
Nicco Montano +600
Valentina Shevchenko -900
Prediction: Not only does Shevchenko own advantages in experience, size and strength it would also help the UFC in the Russian market if they had a second champion to market beside lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov. Montana can always hang her hat on being the first ever women’s flyweight champion, but she will likely be losing the belt in her first defense.
The Rest of the UFC 228 Card:
The Elephant in the Room: Looking ahead to UFC 229
McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov Props:
UFC PPV Calendar for the remainder of 2018
UFC 229 – October 6th, Las Vegas, NV
UFC 230 – November 3rd, New York, NY
UFC 231 – December 8th, Toronto, Canada
UFC 232 – December 29th, Las Vegas, NV
