This Saturday night, UFC Middleweights Gegard Mousasi and Ronaldo Souza take to the Octagon in the UFC’s FIGHT NIGHT main event in Connecticut. At stake is the number one contender’s spot, and a probably the first title shot of 2015 in the Middleweight division.
Right now at the sport books, ‘Jacare’ Souza is a strong (-320) favorite over Mousasi, who is coming back at around (+260). Souza has won 10 of his last 11 fights, with his one loss being a 5 round decision loss to then Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold. Whereas Rockhold stumbled on his way into the UFC with a KO loss to Vitor Belfort, ‘Jacare’ has done nothing but gain momentum and he has looked impressive doing it. He has submitted, he has KO’d and he has won by decision, but he is 3-0 and a title match in the UFC for ‘Jacare’ feels almost inevitable, and a win here will extend that progression.
But the line seems to be a little disrespectful to Mousasi. Mousasi has been the least impressive of the three superior Middleweight talents coming over from Strikeforce (Rockhold and Souza are the others), but he is 35-4-2 overall in MMA and he is the most balanced of the three when it comes to offense. His UFC debut was a flat performance against late replacement Ilir Latifi, who is not a top talent, and he took a loss to Lyoto Machida. It was only in his last outing, when he did away with well regarded Mark Munoz by rear naked choke in the opening round, that he flashed some of the talent he brings to the table. Mousasi is a fighter who always remains unusually calm, and he has pulled off magic in the ring with fast wins. He has done it striking and he has done it with submission, and he is one of the few fighters who can truly claim to be dangerous in both aspects of the game.
If you think I am overstating Mousasi’s talent and want proof, I point you to the first time he met ‘Jacare’, back in September of 2008 in Japan. That fight had a lot of potential then as it was a fight of two superior talents, but the fight never really developed as it ended in less than 3 minutes. Mousasi stayed calm after being grounded by a Souza takedown, and when he had the space a precise up kick shut “Jacare’ off like C3PO. Mousasi is good enough, he could do it again.
