The UFC on FOX 12 event this coming Saturday July 26th at the SAP Center in San Jose, California is headlined by the welterweight battle between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. The heavy handed Lawler is coming off an emotional loss in a title bout, while Brown is on an impressive seven fight winning streak in the UFC.
Right now at the sport books, Lawler sits as a (-305) favorite over Brown, who returns (+250). The match has an anything can happen feel to it that in and of itself could make Brown a smart pick, as his ability to take an opponent out with strikes cannot be in doubt. If he can make the fight chaotic, he has more than a good chance at beating Lawler, even if it goes to the cards.
As the 5 round main event, it is a long fight, so one would expect that it will end before the twenty five minutes is up. Of the two, Lawler is the more cautious fighter, and he relies heavily on his one punch KO power. Brown will have to expend energy to get Lawler to the ground, or he will have to stay both busy and defense on his feet and try to win rounds. Five rounds is a long time for Brown to create that kind of pace and atmosphere, and Lawler only needs that one punch all the way through.
Can Brown break through and land a flurry that hurts Lawler and allows him to close for the finish? Of course it is possible, and Brown has certainly showed the ferocity to close the deal, but over the course of a now 15+ year career in MMA, Lawler has had everything thrown at him, and he has emerged as one of the top fighters in the world. He has faced equal one punch KO power in Johny Hendricks, and he has faced punishing technical strikers like Melvin Manhoef and he has not been stopped. Brown would have to do something that has not been done before, and against a sharp predator like Lawler, that is a tall order.
Brown’s best chance may come at the start of the fight, where he is fresh and explosive. If he can be aggressive and land a shot that hurts Lawler early, closing the deal ieth an explosion is his best bet. That ill only get harder to do later in the fight.
