This weekend’s UFC features 2 heavyweight bouts on the main card, and the September 13th UFN event is headlined by Antonio Silva versus Andre Arlovski. That is followed by the September 20th UFN event headlined by Roy Nelson taking on Mark Hunt, so it is safe to say that the heavyweights are in the front-lines this month.
Antonio Silva (-330) is currently a solid favorite over Andrei Arlovksi, who is returning (+270). The two met before, back in 2010 under the Strikeforce banner, and Silva took a decision win. It is a fight where both fighters need to pull a good performance out of their hat. Arlovski is on the second fight of his return to the UFC, and though he won a split decision over Brendan Schaub in his first outing, the match would have been better off not happening it was so boring. Arlovski’s game will always be limited at this level, so he needs to flash his KO power to remind people of what he can do. Silva will present his massive head as a target, and he is coming off a suspension for elevated testosterone, but his brutish game will likely get him chest to chest and doing damage. Arlovski has gotten better at defending his glass head, but Silva will be looking to take him out as well.
Roy Nelson (+125) is a slight underdog in his bout with Mark Hunt (-145) in a fight between two of the division’s ‘tonka tough’ heads. Nelson’s last 4 wins come via the KO, so he will be looking to land his big punch. Now Nelson, has been avoidable, and you would assume that Hunt will be a bit sharper on defense since he is recovering from a broken jaw. He too packs a big punch, but with both men being plodders, this one has a chance at featuring a lot of swinging and missing. On the ground, Nelson is better, but he has not used a ground game in so long that if it goes to the ground what happens is anyone’s guess.
Nelson may have some value as an underdog. If the fight drags on, Nelson may try to get a few take-downs throughout the fight. If he is able to pull Hunt down a few times and control for a bit, he may be able to sway the judges in his favor, especially if the stand up exchanges are not going his way.
