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Reading: Underlying numbers from USMNT win vs. Paraguay point to deep run potential
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Home » Blog » Underlying numbers from USMNT win vs. Paraguay point to deep run potential
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Underlying numbers from USMNT win vs. Paraguay point to deep run potential

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Last updated: June 16, 2026 4:00 am
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The United States opened the 2026 World Cup with a 4-1 victory over Paraguay, as Folarin Balogun scored twice in the win, marking the national team’s first three-goal World Cup victory since Bert Patenaude’s hat trick in 1930 against the same opponent, according to ESPN.

The U.S. produced a field tilt of 80.5% against Paraguay — the fourth-highest mark by any team in an opening World Cup match since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1998. ESPN notes that two of the teams ahead of the U.S., Spain in 2010 and Argentina in 2018, posted similar tilts in matches they did not win, and that both Switzerland and Türkiye recorded comparable marks in this tournament without winning their games.

When it came to activity in the penalty area, the U.S. registered 54 touches inside the box. Only Spain in 2010 had more in an opening match until Germany produced 64 touches against Curaçao. ESPN points out the U.S. stands out because previous high tallies by winning teams were lower — before 2026 the highest for a winner was France’s 44 touches against Australia in 2022.

The Americans converted their dominance into offense, scoring four goals and having another disallowed, while limiting Paraguay to nine shots that carried a combined conversion probability of 0.53 expected goals, according to ESPN.

The piece also highlights the managerial context: Mauricio Pochettino, a successful club manager known for building high-pressing teams, is in charge of the U.S. side. ESPN framed these underlying metrics alongside the broader question of how much a single dominant opening match predicts deep tournament progress.

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