Two teams that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Tony Sanchez and the UNLV Rebels (+25) are set to pay a visit to the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. The opening kickoff for this conference matchup is set for 4:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can catch the action live on STAD,FCBK.
UNLV Rebels at Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
Utah State is the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 25 points to UNLV. If the Rebels seize momentum early it will generate a nice live betting opportunity. Bookmakers have yet to decide where the game’s over/under (O/U) will be placed.
The line for this game first opened at -24.
The hapless Rebels are down 4.6 units so far in 2018 and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 3-1. The Aggies are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-0 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-0.
The Rebels are 2-3 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 4-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
When these two teams met a year ago, Utah State won soundly 52-28.
UNLV enters this matchup on a four-game unbeaten streak while Utah State has dropped each of its last two. The Rebels are most-recently reeling from a 50-14 defeat to New Mexico last week. The passing game left much to be desired as Max Gilliam completed just 15-of-35 passes for 123 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Brandon Presley (four receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Darren Woods Jr. (three catches, 37 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Utah State just put together a 45-20 win over BYU. The defensive secondary allowed the Cougars to air it out for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Talon Shumway had a good outing in the loss for BYU, recording 110 yards on five catches. For Utah State, Jordan Love completed 18-of-28 passes for 165 yards and four touchdowns. Darwin Thompson (109 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Gerold Bright (61 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the running game as Jalen Greene (five receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Thompson (three catches, 22 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
UNLV has run the ball on 66.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 50.4 percent. The Rebels have produced 278 rush yards/game and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Aggies are averaging 194 rushing yards per game and have 18 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Aggies could hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has allowed only six sacks while the D-line has logged 12 sacks. The Rebels O-line has allowed 16 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss on just nine occasions.
The Rebels offense has averaged 98 yards in the air overall and has eight passing scores so far. The Aggies have put up 261 pass yards per outing and have nine total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, UNLV has allowed 195 rush yards and 218 pass yards per game. The Utah State D has allowed 200.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aggies are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.31 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have allowed a 7.54 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gilliam has put up 123 passing yards this year, and has completed 44 percent of his 36 attempts with two passing scores and one interception. He has a 2.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.10 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from UNLV in this one. As a group, Armani Rogers, Lexington Thomas and Brandon Presley have collectively accounted for 358 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
Jordan Love has connected on 82-of-125 passes for 879 yards, seven TDs and three INTs for Utah State. His ANY/A stands at 6.57 for the season and 9.52 over his last two outings.
We’re looking for the Aggies to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Ron’Quavion Tarver (118 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but Gerold Bright (248 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Darwin Thompson (340 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Aggies’ recent offensive gameplans.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: UNLV Rebels at Utah State Aggies
SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – UNLV
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
UNLV was favored by 9 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 63. The over cashed and UNLV failed to cover in the 50-14 loss to New Mexico.
As a team, UNLV has produced 4.76428571428571 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.6 over its last two.
Utah State has averaged 6.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.4 over its past two.
Both teams have lost five fumbles this season.
Utah State was favored by one point in its last match and the O/U was set at 55. The over cashed and Utah State covered in the 45-20 triumph over BYU.
Over its last three contests, Utah State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Rebels offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have put up two such plays.
The UNLV defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Utah State has given up two such plays.
The UNLV offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Utah State has created nine such runs.
The Rebels defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Aggies have given up seven such runs.
The Utah State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 12 times this year. UNLV has produced nine sacks.
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