Two schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Clay Helton and the USC Trojans (-3) are set to face off against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. FOX will televise the action and the game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. When these two programs met a year ago, USC beat UCLA 28-23.
USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Preview
In this Saturday Pac-12 game, USC is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Trojans are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Bruins are +135. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points, and if one team gets out in front early on, it will likely produce a reasonable live betting opportunity.
The over/under hasn’t changed after it was initially placed at 55. Having said that, the line opened at 5 and the sharp action is siding with the Bruins.
The Trojans are down 2.5 units so far and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-5. The Bruins have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 9.2 units. They’re 4-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 4-6.
The Trojans are 5-5 straight up (SU), including 4-4 SU against conference opponents. The Bruins are 2-8 SU overall and are also 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Trojans look to get back on track after a narrow 15-14 loss to California last week. JT Daniels completed 21-of-34 passes for only 180 yards, two scores and one interception. Aca’Cedric Ware (103 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Vavae Malepeai (47 yards on 13 carries) led the ground attack while Tyler Vaughns (eight receptions, 91 yards, two TDs) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (six catches, 53 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
UCLA just suffered a 31-28 defeat to Arizona State. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Sun Devils to rush for 281 yards on 59 attempts, including three rush TDs. Eno Benjamin was on a different level for Arizona State, putting up 182 rushing yards and a score on 34 attempts. For UCLA, Wilton Speight completed 26-of-35 passes for 335 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Joshua Kelley (79 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack as Caleb Wilson (11 receptions, 164 yards, two TDs) and Christian Pabico (three catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a remarkably similar (52-48) run-pass ratio on the season. The Trojans have produced 140 rush yards per game (including 148 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 16 scores on the ground this year. The Bruins are averaging 148 rush yards per game (156 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Trojans ought to own the advantage in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up just 30 sacks while the D-line registered 46 sacks. The Bruins O-line has allowed 29 sacks and their defense has generated only 22 sacks.
The Trojans offensive scheme has logged 230 yards per contest through the air overall (212 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Bruins have recorded 222 pass yards per outing (236.3 in the Pac-12) and have 12 total pass scores.
USC has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 154 yards and throw for 216 yards per game. The UCLA D has given up 226.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 215.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Trojans have given up an ANY/A of 6.07 to opposing QBs, while the Bruins are allowing an ANY/A of 6.56.
Passing-wise, Daniels is up to 1,809 yards on the year, and has connected on 145-of-252 attempts with 10 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has a 5.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.92 over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Wilton Speight has completed 71-of-114 passes for 748 yards, four TDs and four INTs. Speight’s ANY/A stands at 5.05 for the year and 7.76 over his last two games.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins
SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Trojans offense has created 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bruins have accounted for six such plays.
The USC defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCLA has given up eight such plays.
The USC offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCLA has created 13 such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bruins have given up eight such runs.
The USC D has sacked opposing QBs 25 times this year. UCLA has registered just 14 sacks.
As a team, USC has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt over its last three contests and 5.2 over its last two.
UCLA has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its past two.
Over its last three matches, UCLA is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for USC’s previous game was set at 45. The under cashed in the team’s 15-14 defeat to California.
Over its last three matchups, USC is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for UCLA’s last matchup was set at 65.5. The under cashed in the 31-28 defeat to Arizona State.
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