The Utah Jazz (16-22) look to put an end to their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (20-17) at Pepsi Center. The game begins at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 206 points with Denver set as a 6.5-point favorite.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
The Jazz are hoping for a better outcome after their 108-98 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup. New Orleans’ 18.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Utah, who had a rate of 14.6. The Pelicans’ mark was below their season average of 19.7, while the Jazz’s was below the 22.8 mark opponents have averaged against New Orleans this season. Joe Johnson had a solid outing for Utah, putting up 20 points and seven rebounds.
The last time the Nuggets played, they dismantled the Phoenix Suns, 134-111. The Nuggets had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.695 (above their season average of 0.526) and had a free throw rate of 0.244 (above their season average of 0.191). Gary Harris was the top scorer from either team with 36 points on 14-for-17 shooting.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Denver. Denver ranks 27th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.2 percent), while the disruptive defense of Utah forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.8 percent).
Utah heads into the game with records of 16-22 straight up (SU) and 19-19 against the spread (ATS). Jazz games have a slight tendency to finish under the O/U total (52.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 20-17 SU and 18-18-1 ATS. A little over half of Nuggets games have also finished under the total.
Both teams have had a couple of players heat up over their last five games. For the Jazz it’s been Derrick Favors (16.2 points and 7.8 rebounds) and Donovan Mitchell (18.8 points, 3.4 assists and 2.2 steals), while Jamal Murray (19.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists) and Trey Lyles (16.0 points and 8.2 rebounds) have been great for the Nuggets.
The Jazz have won two out of three against the Nuggets this season, but dropped their most recent game, a 107-83 blowout. Utah covered as a 6-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 190 points, which was 14.5 points below the projected point total of 204.5 points. Denver’s 0.549 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Utah, who had a rate of 0.381. In the victory, Murray led all scorers with 22 points.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Utah is 6-12 ATS on the road with 10 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.
At home, Denver is 10-7 ATS with 9 unders and 8 overs.
Denver and Utah are both 10-2 when they allow less than 100 points.
When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 17-11 and the Jazz are 14-9.
Denver ranks third in fast break points per game (14.4) while Utah ranks 27th (8.5).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.2) while the Jazz rank 24th (10.5).
Utah ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Denver ranks 25th (24.1).
The Nuggets rank fourth in rebounds per game (45.6) while the Jazz rank 26th (40.4).
Utah averages 9.2 steals per game, which ranks second in the league. Denver ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Nuggets rank third in points in the paint per game (49.3) while the Jazz rank 23rd (41.6).
Utah averages 17.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Denver ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.0).
The Jazz average 29.9 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (28.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Utah is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 14.0, up from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 112.8 points per game (4.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.0 points per game (3.9 below their season average).
