Rudy Gobert suffered a sprained PCL in his left knee and a bone bruise in his tibia in the opening moments of the game with the Boston Celtics. The center will likely spend a month on the sidelines after he missed almost the third of Utah matches this season. The Jazz won the tilt at TD Garden mostly thanks to Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell, but once again, the coach Quin Snyder is forced to change the offensive plays and turn to entirely different strategy.
Gobert’s absence will hurt Utah defensively
The Jazz are among the best defensive teams with Rudy Gobert healthy and on the floor and are in the 3rd place in the NBA with 99.9 points allowed per contest. However, the Cleveland Cavaliers scored 109 in a Saturday night’s tilt, as Utah conceded even 46 points in the paint, so the interior defense is apparently weaker with the French international out. Gobert already missed 11 games with a bone bruise in his knee and Utah allowed 100+ points in eight of those matches.
Ekpe Udoh is the one who will see more minutes on the court and although he is an excellent defender, Udoh is not very useful in the offense, and I don’t think Snyder will rely on him as it was the case with Gobert. Udoh can contribute defensively and he proved that with fantastic six rejections, seven rebounds, and three steals against the Cavs, but he saw extended minutes because Derrick Favors was unable to play due to an eye injury. Favors’ injury is not that serious, though, and he should be back pretty soon.
A potential top-10 offense and how to take advantage of it when playing totals
With Gobert on the floor, alongside Favors and Rubio, who is not a real shooting threat, Utah’s offense is slow-paced and the opposing teams could defend the interior well. However, the offense looked transformed when Rudy suffered a bone bruise in November as Snyder moved Favors to the center and used Jonas Jerebko as stretch four, which resulted in 109.8 points per contest, way above the season average 103.1 ppg. The offense is much faster and there is more space for the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, and Joe Ingles to shoot from downtown and exploit the transition. The last two matches in which the Jazz hit 30 triples with 50% from beyond the arc is a clear sign that the offense drastically changed without Gobert, and that is great for those who like to play totals, as Utah is now way better in scoring, while they are allowing more points as well.
The dark horse of the Northwest Division
The Jazz are currently at the bottom of the Northwest Division, and although the competition is rather fierce, their rivals are not playing much better, and I wouldn’t exclude Utah as the division winners, at least not yet. Utah is 14-16 at the moment, while the divisional leaders, the Minnesota Timberwolves, are 17-13, but none of the teams in the Northwest is consistent and anything could happen in the remaining 50+ games. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the biggest favorites to clinch the division at -150, but they are having difficulties in the offense and it seems that the Wolves at +250 are not the bad choice to pick. However, the Jazz are +2000 and considering all the teams in the Northwest, it is not impossible that Utah tops the division, so selecting them with great odds in mind is not a bad thing to do.
Mitchell’s rookie of the year candidacy
Donovan Mitchell emerged as Utah top offensive weapon this season as he is the team’s scoring leader with 17.8 ppg, and Gobert’s recent injury will only open up more space for the rookie shooting guard to score even more points in the coming weeks. Utah is attempting more shots from the perimeter and Mitchell’s usage is greater with Gobert on the sidelines, so the 13th pick overall has a chance to enter the race for the rookie of the year award. Ben Simmons is the clear favorite to receive the prestigious award at -1100, and it is no wonder considering that Simmons is among the top 15 players in the NBA right now. Still, we witnessed numerous season-ending injuries since the start of the campaign, and if one occurs to Simmons, Mitchell will become the No. 1 option for the ROTY, so backing the Jazz’s guard at +1200 could be an excellent investment.
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