The Vanderbilt Commodores (6-11, 1-4 SEC) will attempt to snap their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-4, 1-3 SEC) at Humphrey Coliseum. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018, and will air on SEC Network.
Mississippi State opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 139 points.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Prediction
In the Commodores’ last matchup, they were defeated by the No. 21 Kentucky Wildcats, 74-67. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Kentucky’s largest strengths. They had 37 free throw attempts, while Vanderbilt had 27. Jeff Roberson led Vanderbilt in scoring with 20 points on 6-for-12 shooting.
The Bulldogs were beaten by the No. 22 Auburn Tigers in their last outing, 76-68. Auburn’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Mississippi State. The Tigers had a rate of 8.6 (better than their season average of 15.0), while the Bulldogs posted a mark of 14.9. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado recorded 10 points and 11 rebounds in the game.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Mississippi State should have a considerable advantage. The Bulldogs defense ranks 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.455), while the Vanderbilt offense is ranked 264th in effective field goal percentage (0.490). Additionally, the Commodores, who rank 20th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.303), will square off against the Bulldogs, who rank 17th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.171).
Vanderbilt holds records of 6-11 straight up (SU) and 1-13 against the spread (ATS). Of the Commodores’ 14 games that accepted bets, nine have finished under the O/U total.
Mississippi State is 13-4 SU, but they are just 3-9 ATS. Bulldogs games also have typically gone under the projected point total (75.0 percent).
Saben Lee has averaged 16.8 points and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Vanderbilt.
After the Commodores won the only contest against the Bulldogs last season, 77-48, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Commodores had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.596 vs. 0.372) and had a much better turnover percentage (16.2 vs. 23.9).
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Vanderbilt, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Vanderbilt is 1-5 ATS with 5 unders and 1 over.
Mississippi State is 3-5 ATS at home with 6 unders and 2 overs.
Vanderbilt ranks 12th in three pointers allowed per game (17.5) while Mississippi State ranks 204th (24.2).
The Bulldogs rank 33rd in rebounds per game (39.8) while the Commodores rank 153rd (35.6).
Mississippi State ranks 14th in blocks per game (5.9) while Vanderbilt ranks 123rd in blocks allowed per game (3.9).
The Commodores rank seventh in steals allowed per game (4.4) while the Bulldogs rank 58th (5.6).
Vanderbilt ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (10.4) while Mississippi State ranks 30th (11.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS with 4 unders over their last five games.
The Commodores have been outscored by an average of 6.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Vanderbilt has defeated opponents by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 73.4 points per game (1.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.4 points per game (8.7 above their season average).
