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Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Preview 07/27/18

Marlins vs Braves
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals will be facing off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast the matchup.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+220) is coming into this one as the underdog against Washington (-240) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -160 for the Nationals -1.5 runs and +140 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 56-47 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 44-60 straight up (SU). The team’s gained 5.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 1.9 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Nationals have gone 51-51 SU this year and are 47-54 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 19.4 units for moneyline bettors and 10.2 units ATS. Washington’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 54-47-2 in 2018. Washington has been a solid under bet with a total record of 41-58-2.

Right-hander Max Scherzer will get the nod for the visiting Nationals. Scherzer is 13-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 189 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with seven strikeouts and a 5.54 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).

The Marlins are turning to Pablo Lopez (2-1, 5.09 ERA), who has 20 strikeouts and seven walks to his credit as well as a 1.13 WHIP. Lopez is 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA in one start against Washington this year.

Washington’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.65, along with a WHIP of 1.26 and a K/9 of 8.72.

Nationals hitters have slashed .245/.325/.405 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Washington’s offense has been powered by shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon, who have combined to drive in 90 runs. Turner is hitting .264/.337/.411 with 13 home runs, 43 RBIs, 58 runs and 22 steals. Rendon has a .284 average with 15 homers, 47 RBIs and 47 runs scored.

For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.11 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 35 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.45 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.16.

Miami’s offense is putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .244/.302/.363 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Marlins’ offense has been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .289/.335/.409 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 61 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .285/.364/.418 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 7.3 units and are 39-37 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 40 of those games, compared to 34 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The over has hit in five of Miami’s last seven games.

Washington has posted 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.6 over its last five.

The Nationals have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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