The Buffalo Bills (+5) are flying south to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. CBS will televise the action and the game is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC matchup, Miami has been tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 5 points. The Bills are also receiving +160 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are -180. If one side can get out in front early it’ll generate a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40 points.
This game’s O/U has yet to change after being initially set at 40. Having said that, the line opened at -6 and early action has shifted in favor of the Bills.
The Bills are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-6. The Dolphins have gained 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-5 ATS and also have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Bills have gone 4-7 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 5-6 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.
Miami enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Buffalo has lost zero in a row. The Bills made it two in a row after a 24-21 victory over Jacksonville last week. The passing attack left much to be desired as Josh Allen completed just eight passes on 19 attempts for 160 yards and one touchdown. LeSean McCoy (46 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and the signal-caller Allen (99 yards on 13 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack. Jason Croom (two receptions, 16 yards) and Isaiah McKenzie (two catches, 11 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Miami narrowly dropped a 27-24 game to Indianapolis a week ago. The defense allowed the Colts to pass for 347 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 118 yards. T.Y. Hilton put up a good showing for Indianapolis, accounting for 125 yards on seven catches. For Miami, Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-25 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Frank Gore (67 yards on 14 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Drake (five receptions, 64 yards, one TD) and DeVante Parker (three catches, 10 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Buffalo has run the ball on 48.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has an overall rush percentage of 44.1 percent. The Bills have produced 114 rush yards/game (including 129 per game against East opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dolphins are putting up 107 rush yards per game (85 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
The Bills offense has tallied 182 yards per game through the air overall (280 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Dolphins have recorded 228 pass yards per game (147.3 against AFC foes) and have 18 total pass TDs.
Buffalo appears to hold the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 111 yards and pass for 208 yards per game. The Miami D has allowed 269.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.15 to opponents, while the Dolphins have allowed a 6.58 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barkley is up to 232 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 60 percent of his 25 attempts with two scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a sparkling 10.15 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
We expect the Buffalo offense to mix it up in this one. Robert Foster (124 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), LeSean McCoy (313 rush yards) and Josh Allen (254 rush yards, four rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have all played key roles lately.
Brock Osweiler has completed 113-of-178 passes for 1,247 yards, six TDs and four INTs for Miami. His ANY/A sits at 5.48 for the season and 2.74 over his past two outings.
We expect the Dolphins to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Leonte Carroo (74 receiving yards, one TD this season) has contributed lately, but Frank Gore (505 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Kenyan Drake (381 rush yards, four rush TDs, 287 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have been significant factors in the Miami offense.
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Free NFL Pick: Bills at Dolphins
SU Winner – Dolphins, ATS Winner – Dolphins, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Buffalo defense has 28 sacks on the year while Miami has just 18.
Miami has lost seven fumbles this season while Buffalo has lost six.
The Bills offense has registered six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Dolphins have accounted for seven such plays.
The Buffalo defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Miami has given up nine such plays.
Both teams have produced eight rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Buffalo offense has recorded 29 running plays of 10+ yards while Miami has accounted for 24 such plays.
The Bills defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Dolphins have given up 13 such runs.
The Over/Under for Miami’s last matchup was set at 52.5. The under cashed in that 27-24 defeat to Indianapolis.
In its last three games, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matchups, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Miami has lost five of its last six games SU, with a seven-point win over New York on November 4th accounting for the one victory over that span.
The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game going into it was 36.5. The over cashed in the team’s 24-21 win over Jacksonville.
As a team, Buffalo has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
Miami has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
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