Week 22 Free ATS Pick – New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Rams are entering Super Bowl LIII as underdogs as they prepare to take on the New England Patriots. The game starts at 6:30 p.m. ET and CBS is scheduled to have the TV rights.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Los Angeles is getting picked as the underdog and is currently getting 2 points in this Sunday matchup. The Patriots are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Rams are +110. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 56.5 points, and should one side can find paydirt early, it would likely lead to a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The under has gotten the bulk of the early sharp action, as the game’s over/under initially opened at 59.

Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this season as the Patriots have gained 1.4 units while the Rams are ahead 3.6 units.

The Patriots are 13-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Rams are 15-3 SU.

Both teams enter this matchup on four-game undefeated streaks. The Patriots continue to ride high after a 37-31 victory over Kansas City on January 20. Tom Brady completed 30 passes for 348 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Sony Michel (113 rushing yards on 29 attempts, two TDs) and Rex Burkhead (41 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) provided the ground attack while Julian Edelman (seven receptions, 96 yards) and Rob Gronkowski (six catches, 79 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

The Los Angeles Rams take the field on Sunday having just earned a 26-23 win over New Orleans. The team’s allowed the Saints to put up 249 passing yards and 48 rushing yards. Alvin Kamara was a bright spot in the loss for New Orleans, posting 96 yards on 11 catches. For Los Angeles, Jared Goff completed 25-of-40 passes for 297 yards, one touchdown and one interception. C.J. Anderson (44 rushing yards on 16 attempts) mounted the running game as Brandin Cooks (seven receptions, 107 yards) and Robert Woods (six catches, 33 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Each of these squads sports a similar (46-54) run-pass ratio on the season. The Patriots have produced 132 rush yards per game and have 26 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rams are logging 143 rush yards per game and have 27 total rushing TDs.

The Pats offensive scheme has logged 283 yards per contest in the air overall and has 31 passing scores so far. The Rams have produced 290 pass yards per contest and have 33 total pass TDs.

New England has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 104 yards and pass for 267 yards per game. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 256.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.2 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 6.02 to opposing QBs, while the Rams are allowing an ANY/A of 6.32.

Offensively, Brady is up to 4,703 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 405-of-616 attempts with 30 scores through the air and 13 interceptions. Brady has a 7.18 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.12 over the last two outings.

For the home team, Jared Goff has completed 389-of-601 passes for 4,985 yards, 33 TDs and 13 INTs. Goff’s ANY/A stands at 7.60 for the year and 6.52 over his last two games.

Betting Prediction: Patriots at Rams

SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Patriots, O/U – Over

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Team Betting Notes

The Over/Under for New England’s last game was 56. The over cashed in the team’s 37-31 win over Kansas City.

New England has averaged 4.1 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.

Los Angeles has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.

Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.

Over its last three contests, New England is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Los Angeles’ last outing was set at 54.5. The under cashed in the 26-23 triumph over New Orleans.

Over its last three games, Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Patriots offense has recorded eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rams have put up nine such plays.

The New England defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Los Angeles has given up 12 such plays.

The New England offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Los Angeles has created 15 such runs.

The Patriots defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Rams have given up 16 such runs.

The Los Angeles D has sacked opposing QBs 44 times this season. New England has produced just 36 sacks.


Written by GMS Previews

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