With 8:30 remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sneaked behind the Spurs’ defensive wall and appeared to have a clear look. Victor Wembanyama, who stands 7-foot-4 with an approximately 8-foot wingspan, was a few feet away under the rim and appeared resigned that it was too late to block the shot. He still raised an arm, tracked the ball, then collected the rebound after the shot grazed the rim; Gilgeous-Alexander tried to wrestle the ball free and Wembanyama laughed, according to ESPN. The play was a minor footnote in San Antonio’s 122-115 double-overtime win in which Wembanyama finished with 41 points and 24 rebounds.
That sequence, which shows up only as a missed shot and a rebound on the box score, highlighted a recurring theme analysts describe when watching Wembanyama: his mere presence alters opponents’ actions in ways that are difficult to quantify, according to ESPN. “How do you measure fear?” a Western Conference analytics staffer asked, as quoted by ESPN.
Every NBA arena is equipped with 20 high-tech cameras that track 29 points on each player’s body 60 times per second, producing billions of data points that are fed into artificial intelligence and machine-learning models to create advanced statistics, according to ESPN. Analytics staffers say those tools have expanded understanding of offensive play, but defensive impact remains a comparative mystery because schematic nuances and outcomes can mislead measurement.
“On defense, you could do everything right and the guy could make an impossible shot on you,” a Western Conference analytics staffer told ESPN. A single defensive statistic can be shaped by broader strategy, an Eastern Conference analytics staffer added; a high blow-by rate for a defender might reflect a scheme that funnels ballhandlers toward a shot-blocking center rather than individual failure, according to ESPN.
The difficulty of capturing deterrent impact is not new. Bill Russell, starring at the University of San Francisco in the 1950s, used shot-blocking as a deterrent in practice and games, blocking 13 in his first varsity contest — a USF single-game record — and altering opponents’ behavior, ESPN notes. Former teammates remembered opponents’ frustration, and analytics staffers say Wembanyama represents a modern example of that long-running defensive effect, according to ESPN.
