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What Could Gonzaga Have Done Differently?

The college basketball season is over, and Gonzaga – despite the best season in school history – fell just short of a national championship. Why did the Bulldogs not take the last step at the Fial Four? A set of four reasons will explain:

Przemek Karnowski Struggled

The big Polish center got a lot of good looks near the basket, within three to four feet, but he just couldn’t finish. He is taller than North Carolina’s Kennedy Meeks, but Meeks is thick and strong, so Karnowski could not overpower Meeks and get right to the rim for dunks. He had to shoot three-foot half-hooks or bank shots, and he just happened to miss, with the ball rolling agonizingly off the rim. Karnowski hit several free throws on Monday, but he finished 1 for 8 from the field. Those missed shots, on very good scoring opportunities, were too much for Gonzaga to overcome. It’s especially painful when good shots don’t produce good results, and Gonzaga simply had to get enough production from its big man to win. It did not get that level of production.

Foul Trouble

The fourth foul to Zach Collins early in the second half was a crusher for the Zags. Collins provided the length and shot-altering instincts which put North Carolina’s big men – Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley – on their back heels. Collins gave Gonzaga a second big man to throw at North Carolina’s size, and he effectively neutralized the Tar Heels when on the floor. When he was off the floor, though, Hicks began to feast, and that was a turning point in Monday night’s game. It is hard to get past the importance of this development.

Jordan Mathews Cooled Off

The presence of Mathews wasn’t the first reason Gonzaga got this far. Other players such as Karnowski and Nigel Williams-Goss played larger roles in helping this program reach its first Final Four and then its first national championship game. However, Mathews hit the big three-point shot which lifted the Zags past West Virginia in the Sweet 16. He always seemed to hit an important three-pointer over the past two weeks, from the Sweet 16 through the Final Four national semifinals against South Carolina. On Monday night, though, Mathews cooled off. He hit only two shots the entire night, nothing in the final 13 minutes. That lack of three-point shooting in a very tough and physical game played largely within 10 feet of the basket prevented Gonzaga from spacing out North Carolina’s defense. Had Mathews made just two or three more shots, Gonzaga probably would have drawn the Tar Heels out of the paint and created more openings for other players to drive or cut.

Free Throws

This is relevant in a six-point game (71-65) which was only a three-point game with 20 seconds left and a one-point game earlier in the final minute. Gonzaga hit just 17 of 26 free throws, 65 percent with nine misses. If Gonzaga merely hits 21 of 26 – which is not spectacular, but close to 80 percent – it might have been tied or ahead by one point heading into those final 20 seconds.

That’s where experience comes into play. You may have heard the post-game reports with Roy Williams telling his Tar Heels team that everything will count. Every play, every move. They played the game like everything mattered. It’s that little bit of experience that showed at the charity stripe. Gonzaga just didn’t put up the numbers they normally do and that’s one of the things that cost them.

The Out Of Bounds Play

There’s not much that could have been done on Gonzaga’s part but the out-of-bounds play where Kennedy Meeks’ elbow was clearly out was a factor. The refs missed the call, point blank. At that point in the game, there was just 50 seconds left and the Zags were down just one point. The ball should have been theirs. With possession, who knows what happens. Instead, possession was awarded to North Carolina (due to the jump ball) and they ended up scoring. They extended their lead to three points and never looked back. That series proved to be a factor. Head Coach Mark Few didn’t realize it at the time but he should have blown a gasket.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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