Group D is coming down to the wire at the World Cup in Brazil as Italy and Uruguay clash on Tuesday for one spot to go through to the round of 16. Both of these teams ran into the buzzsaw that is Costa Rica, leaving them to fight for second place in the group, although Italy has a slight edge in goal difference.
World Cup Odds: Uruguay +165, Italy +180, Draw +225
Why Italy Can Win
The Italians can win if their strikers, namely Mario Balotelli, step up their game and contribute to the cause. He didn’t look good in Italy’s 1-0 loss to Costa Rica as he was often frustrated and covered in numbers, and Antonio Cassano didn’t make much of a difference when he was brought on at halftime. Italy had 58% of the possession and Andrea Pirlo did his best to pull the strings in midfield, but the strikers couldn’t make it count when he did find the time and space to attempt a killer pass, which to the credit of their opponents, wasn’t very often as Costa Rica pressured them all over the pitch.
This Italian side has plenty of experience, so they aren’t going to panic coming into this game, but they have to show more urgency than they did against Costa Rica if they want to avoid a second straight group-stage exit at the World Cup.
Why Uruguay Can Win
Uruguay has an excellent set of strikers in Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez, who came back from knee surgery to steal the show with two goals in a 2-1 win over England, where he won the Player of the Year award and it showed that he knew the English players’ tendencies, especially the defenders. He made some very intelligent runs to take advantage of an England defense that was, quite frankly, not very good. Cristian Rodriguez also had a good game in midfield as Uruguay sat back and hit England on the counter for much of the game, but when they had to turn the screw, they did so and their ruthlessness paid off.
Now the question is, how healthy is Suarez? He looked fine against England, but you have to think he got a little extra joy out of tormenting the English, which is going to make things very interesting when he returns to Liverpool. Does he have enough left in the tank for Italy? Uruguay hopes so, because they looked pretty awful without him against Costa Rica.
Outlook
This will be the 10th meeting for Italy and Uruguay, who have three wins and four draws in those games. Their most recent meeting came last summer in Brazil for the Confederations Cup, and it ended in a 2-2 draw, and this game won’t have as many goals in it as things will get cagey for a while, but it will eventually open up. The Italians’ experience will pay off as they get behind a struggling Uruguayan defense.
Pick: Italy
