The group stage of the 2026 World Cup produced memorable moments — including Cape Verde — and the knockout bracket is now set, offering three weeks of single-elimination international soccer. With matchups clarified, it is time to weigh which expectations are justified and which verge on overreaction.
Paying little heed to the final group loss to Türkiye, the United States fielded a starting XI made up almost exclusively of backups in that match. The first two games offered stronger signs: the win over Paraguay featured some of the most breathtaking attacking play the U.S. men have produced, and the victory over Australia displayed an ability to build a lead and protect it.
The FIFA algorithm paired the U.S. with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, one of the tournament’s easier draws. The DTAI Sports Analytics Lab at KU Leuven lists Bosnia and Herzegovina as having the fifth-lowest Elo rating among knockout-round teams. The piece’s verdict on the expectation that the U.S. must reach the quarterfinals: not an overreaction.
Belgium appear to be the most likely round-of-16 opponent for the Americans, as Belgium face Senegal in the round of 32. Belgium thumped New Zealand in the final matchweek to win their group; if both teams win, they would meet in the round of 16. Containing Belgium winger Jérémy Doku and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne would pose a significant defensive test, though the U.S. camp in Irvine, California, is described as carrying strong self-belief.
Advancing beyond the quarterfinals would likely require the United States to navigate past Spain, one of the tournament’s co-favorites. Paraguay and Australia ceded control in their matches with the U.S., with American possession at 65.0% and 61.1% respectively. Beating Spain would demand success in a different style: winning without prolonged possession and applying pressure to Spain’s technical players.
Argentina has surged into title contention after a strong qualifying campaign and returning key players from the 2022 title run. Before the tournament, only eight of 19 writers polled expected Argentina to reach the semifinals; Lionel Messi has scored six goals in the tournament so far, and Argentina sit on the opposite side of the bracket from the two European pre-tournament favorites.
