The opening four knockout games of the World Cup produced unexpected moments and early storylines. Brazil, Canada, Paraguay and Morocco progressed to the round of 16, while Germany lost a shootout for the first time in World Cup history and the Netherlands also fell in a penalty kick decider after recording just 32% possession, their lowest for any World Cup match on record, according to Futi and Stats Perform data.
The tournament structure has added volatility: the extra single-elimination knockout round increases randomness in results, and with only four full matches completed it is too soon to draw firm conclusions about the contenders, the story said. Projections cited in the original reporting come from Michael Caley’s PADDLIN’ model.
Mexico’s principal question is the value of home-field advantage at the Estadio Azteca. Mexico is the only team at the 2026 World Cup that has won every game and not conceded a goal, according to Futi and Stats Perform. The round of 16 will be Mexico’s final match in the country and its last at the Azteca during this tournament, and the side has registered wins both by dominating possession and by countering.
Liverpool’s former head of research Ian Graham is quoted as saying the average effect of home-field advantage is comparable to adding one Lionel Messi to a team. Caley wrote that Mexico has the most substantial home-field advantage at this World Cup, noting that their two matches at the Azteca will receive roughly double the regular boost because the stadium sits at more than 7,000 feet; studies of home-field advantage in league football have found elevation to have a fixed and large effect, the report said.
France’s immediate question centers on their performance when not allowed to possess the ball. France entered the knockouts with three of the six best attackers in the world, and had scored 13 goals overall while averaging 18 shots per game; Kylian Mbappé, as of Wednesday morning in the report, had more goals than half of the teams in the tournament by himself, according to Futi and Stats Perform data.
