World Cup Qualifying – Uruguay vs Ecuador

World Cup qualifying resumes in South America, as Uruguay plays host to Ecuador for matchday 11 on November 10.

Match: Uruguay vs Ecuador

Region: South America

Date/Time: November 10, 2016 / 6 PM EDT

Location: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, Uruguay

3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Home: -155
Away: +500
Draw: +280

Handicap/Spread Odds:
Home: -1 +115
Away: +1 -135

Total Over 2.5:
Over +105
Under -125

Most Recent W. Cup qualification Meeting:

Ecuador beat Uruguay at home 2 – 1 in the first meeting between the teams in qualifying.

Current Team Record/Points in Qualifying – Position

Uruguay – 6 – 2 – 2 – 20 Points – 2nd
Ecuador – 5 – 2 – 3 – 17 Points – 3rd

Ecuador looks to erase a long history of tough results in Uruguay when they take on Los Charrúas on matchday 11 of South American World Cup qualification towards Russia in 2018.

When either listed as the home side or officially at home in all competitions between the two teams, Ecuador has never won against Uruguay. In 23 meetings, Uruguay is 19 – 4 – 0 when at home, or listed as the home side at a neutral venue back in the South American Championship days, and Copa America tournaments dating back to 1939.

Uruguay clings to a three-point lead over both Ecuador and Colombia with 20 points in qualifying, and trail Brazil by just a point for the top spot in the table entering the round.

Uruguay

The suspension of Edinson Cavani who, oh by the way, leads all goal scorers in qualifying with seven, gives Ecuador a little light at the end of the tunnel. As much as Cavani will be missed, make no mistake that Uruguay has the ability to score regardless of his absence. In case you do not follow La Liga in Spain, Luis Suarez is arguably the best striker in the world. Like him or not for his antics with biting opponents or his strange celebrations, numbers do not lie, and having Suarez in your starting eleven is a must.

Production off the back line from captain Diego Godin has provided a nice lift for La Celeste through qualifying. His three goals joins Suarez on the scoring list, along with 11 other players who have tallied three times through 10 matches of South American qualifying.

Despite the longterm success Uruguay has had over Ecuador in the history of the series, Ecuador has actually won and drew in the last three meetings between the teams. All of those matches have been World Cup qualification meetings.

Amazingly, the two teams have not met in a major competition since the 2004 Copa America tournament, spanning four straight events without somehow bumping into one another.

Uruguay headman Óscar Tabárez has been with the national team since 2006, although his history with this organization goes well beyond that. His first stint with Uruguay came in 1988, not to mention his time with the U-20 team on two occasions. We could feature a full-spread article on the accomplishments of a man who played until he was 32, and starting managing just one year after taking off his boots in 1979. Tabárez finished his playing career with Bella Vista, and managed the club for another four campaigns before his first stint with the Uruguayan U-20 squad in 1983.

After 137 games managed, Tabárez has accumulated a 68 – 36 – 33 record, which includes a 2011 Copa America title.

Uruguay is a perfect 5 – 0 at home in their last five qualification matches, and have outscored their opponents 14 – 0 over that span.

Getting past the humiliation of the Copa America Centenario result this past June, Uruguay has certainly gotten back on track, but still need to recognize how much work needs to be done. With so many clubs bunched up between 15 – 20 points respectively, so much can change over the final eight remaining rounds of qualifying.

Uruguay cannot afford another international embarrassment like the one endured in the United States, as they were among the favorites to go deep in the event, and never came out of group stage.

Ecuador

Ecuador trails Uruguay in the all-time series with a 6 – 6 – 25 record in 37 meetings from all competitions dating back to 1939. Uruguay won the first 14 meetings from 1939 – 1979, until Ecuador finally snapped the streak in the 1979 Copa America.

La Tri has struggled in qualifying since being knocked out of the Copa America by the host United States in the quarterfinals. Despite the 5 – 2 – 3 overall record through 10 rounds of qualification, Ecuador has only one win from the last four contests played.

Felipe Caicedo leads Ecuador with five goals in qualifying, alone in third place in the scoring chart behind Edinson Cavani (7), and Arturo Vidal (6). He will also be suspended for this match, after picking up two yellow cards in the 2 – 2 draw with Bolivia on matchday 10.

Enner Valencia increased his scoring output to three goals in qualifying, after scoring a brace last time out against Bolivia. As mentioned, Bolivia took a 2 – 0 halftime lead, only to settle for a point after the draw.

Ecuadorian Head Coach Gustavo Quinteros managed the Bolivian squad from 2010 – 2012, where he was a player from 1993 – 1999. The Argentinian native has been manning the sidelines for El Tri since 2015, trying to get Ecuador back to the World Cup for the fourth time in five events.

Ecuador did not obtain their first World Cup berth until 2002, but has appeared in three of the last four Cups. Their best finish came in 2006 when they escaped group stage, only to lose in the round of 16 to England by a 1 – 0
result.

Final Analysis & Predictions:

Analysis:

It is an obvious push when it comes to both teams losing their leading scorers for this meeting, as Cavani and Caicedo will both be suspended for their teams. That could certainly have an affect on the amount of scoring taking place, but we digress.

This is a match that both clubs cannot afford to give away. With only three points separation, and a group of clubs surrounding them in the table, no one is close to safely through to the World Cup yet.

With absences come opportunities, and we do not see the loss of the two scorers effecting the outcome of this match.

Prediction/Play:

The handicap total makes a viable option in this contest, as we see an offer of -120 on the Over 2 and 2.5 line.
The straight Over 2.5 is lovely at +105 as well, but there are those times where safety nets can provide a decent play if the line is right.

At -120, that is far enough to expect no less than a 1 – 1 match to, at worst, get half of that bet back with the push on the 2, as we hope you understand how handicap lines work.

Take the Over 2 & 2.5 at -120 on the handicap line, but if you must make a play on the 2.5 total with no alternate solutions, we can support that action as well. That third goal will help us cash the ticket regardless of the choice made on this total, so let’s hope for it together, and cash ourselves another ticket in World Cup qualifying.

About EJ the Rainmaker

EJ Garr has been a freelance sports writer and handicapper for more than 20 years. He appeared as a featured writer in Beckett's Magazine for the 2014 World Cup. An experienced radio host, he also lends his voice to the radio shows on the Sports Palooza Radio Network, which includes a weekly segment dedicated to the NY Cosmos.

About EJ the Rainmaker

EJ Garr has been a freelance sports writer and handicapper for more than 20 years. He appeared as a featured writer in Beckett's Magazine for the 2014 World Cup. An experienced radio host, he also lends his voice to the radio shows on the Sports Palooza Radio Network, which includes a weekly segment dedicated to the NY Cosmos.

Check Also

NFL Podcast

The NFL Podcast – Week 3

The NFL Podcast at Get More Sports arrives to week 3 of the NFL season, as Ej the Rainmaker, Adam Greene, and Erik the Hun once again lead you to the well! Fantasy and Handicapping advice you can only find here.

Throwdown Podcast

NCAAF Throwdown Podcast – Episode 9

The NCAA Football Throwdown Podcast comes to you live on Thursday night, as Ej the Rainmaker and Erik the Hun make all the calls!

Send this to friend