We’ve arrived at Part Three of My 2018 NFL Draft Quarterback rankings and we’re getting closer to the guys that could possibly lead a franchise. Who are those guys? Keep reading.
If you want to catch up, you can read Part One by clicking here and Part Two by clicking here.
Here’s the quick recap: 10. Nic Shimonek – Texas Tech, 9. Riley Ferguson – Memphis, 8. Logan Woodside – Toledo, 7. J.T. Barrett – Ohio State, 6. Josh Allen – Wyoming.
TOP 10 continued…
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
2017: 59.1 completion percentage, 3,660 yards, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 1,601 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 6-3, 211 pounds
Jackson is the most divisive quarterback coming out in this draft. Some people have him as the No. 1 or 2 quarterback. Others have him as a mid-rounds pick. I don’t see him falling that far and, hell, maybe he sneaks into the first round. Here’s my evaluation.
First off, Jackson’s numbers are absolutely through the roof and there’s no denying his physical skill. Here’s the problem, he’s not clutch. In his three years as Louisville, find me the close, fourth-quarter win over a ranked opponent. Show me the play he made that put his team over the top in the final minutes of a make-or-break game. Show me a game-winning fourth-quarter drive against a worthy opponent. You can’t.
In fact, in Jackson’s three seasons, two as the full-time solo starter, he has exactly one victory over a ranked opponent, a 63-20 ass-kicking of then No. 2 Florida State in 2016. The Cardinals are 1-8 against ranked opponents in Jackson’s tenure and most of the games aren’t close. Jackson’s big stat games come against teams like Kent State, Purdue and Syracuse. He’s 1-2 in Bowl Games and his only victory came against an unranked Texas A&M team as a freshman.
Here, though, is where you bring up a guy’s “ceiling,” because there is no question to me that Jackson has the highest ceiling of any of the quarterbacks in this draft. His athleticism is beyond elite. It’s near-Olympic level.
The caparisons to Michael Vick are fair because everyone seems to forget that Michael Vick wasn’t a very good NFL quarterback. He had a winning record under center five times out of a 13-year career. Of those five winning seasons, only one was double-digits, an 11-4 year in 2004. All the others were a game over .500 with the exception of an 8-3 season in Philadelphia in 2010. As a full-time starter, Vick completed more than 60 percent of his passes in just one season, again 2010 with the Eagles. Every other year, his completion percentage was in the 50s.
Jackson will probably run a 4.3 40 at the NFL Combine. If he has an off day, maybe it’ll be 4.4. His quickness and elusiveness in the open field is more akin to Antonio Brown than a running quarterback. It’s entirely possible he’s the single best athlete in this entire draft.
I’d love to see him go somewhere with a real quarterback guru that will sit him, work to develop him, and still use him as a gadget wide receiver like the old Bill Cowher Pittsburgh Steelers did with Kordell Stewart his first couple of years. I would draft Jackson as an Athlete, get him on the field when I could and see if I can’t turn him into an NFL quarterback down the road. Because if you could, if you could develop his pocket awareness, his accuracy, his ability to read his progressions and pair that with his God-given athletic ability… I mean, you’d have something that doesn’t presently exist in the NFL.
Pro comparisons: Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton
Ideal team fit: New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants
4. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
2017: 65.0 completion percentage, 4,904 yards, 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 10 rushing touchdowns, 6-5, 230
Rudolph has been charging up quarterback rankings since December. You’ll see him No. 1 on plenty of lists, but not on mine. For a regular NFL scout, Rudolph probably checks all the boxes. He looks like a pro quarterback. He’s got the arm, makes the throws and isn’t bad in the pocket.
Here’s where, again, I see the important stuff you miss if you’re only looking at the physical product, there’s not many real clutch performances on his resume. Like Jackson, Rudolph has been on an elite team. The Cowboys are ranked high every year for good reason. The rest of the roster is there to compete with the best of the best, but Rudolph is 0-3 against Oklahoma and only one of those games, this season’s 62-52 loss, was within 10 points. Now, Rudolph played his ass off in that game, make no mistake, but Oklahoma State trailed by three, 55-52 with three minutes to go. OSU started with the ball on their own 35. All they needed was a field goal to tie the game. A touchdown drive would probably win it.
Here’s what Rudolph did; First snap, incomplete. Second snap, 20 yard completion to Marcell Ateman, ball is now on the Oklahoma 45. Third snap, incomplete. Fourth snap, sacked for a 10-yard loss. Fifth snap, incomplete but the Sooners get called for a personal foul. The ball moves to the Oklahoma 40 and it’s a first down. Sixth snap, the Cowboys call a run play. It gains one yard. Seventh snap, incomplete. Eighth snap, incomplete and this was fourth and eight so Oklahoma State turned it over on downs.
If you wanted to distill what a non-clutch performance looks like at crunch time, that’s it. With plenty of time on the clock and good field position, Rudolph went 1-for-5 and was sacked once. They possessed the ball for exactly one minute of gametime. When Oklahoma got the ball back and Baker Mayfield faced a crunch time performance, not only did he drive the Sooners down to score, he got the ball in the end zone to put it away.
In all, Rudolph went 7-7 in his three seasons against ranked opponents. His only clutch game against a ranked team that I can find is a fourth-quarter comeback win over then No. 24-ranked Iowa State. Rudolph threw two touchdown passes in the final six minutes to pull that one out. He finished 25-of-31 for 376 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an 80.6 completion percentage, but there’s a big difference between an Iowa State team that would finish the season unranked and lose three of its last five games and Oklahoma. The Cyclones are a team that hasn’t had a single player drafted in two years and just eight in the last decade. Nobody on their team now will be picked in this draft before day three.
Pro comparisons: Blake Bortles, Nick Foles, Sam Bradford
Ideal team fits: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints
To be continued in Part 4
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