The 24th-ranked Navy Midshipmen travel south to go to battle with Riley Ferguson and the Memphis Tigers this weekend in the Liberty Bowl. The game is scheduled to begin on Saturday, October 14th at 3:45 p.m. EST. The American Athletic Conference match-up can be viewed on the ESPNU network. Line setters have set this high-scoring affair’s total at 75 points and the Tigers are a -3.5 point favorite.
The Navy Midshipmen have fought their way into the top 25 after a thrilling 48-45 win over rival Air Force in Annapolis on Saturday. Now, the Middies are 5-0 and 2-0 in the AAC conference after the thrilling, come-from-behind victory over the Falcons. As of now, Navy is the best rushing team in the nation. The Midshipmen tote the rock for 414 yards per match.
The Memphis Tigers are heading into this game off an impressive 70-31 road win over the UConn Huskies last Friday night. After the win, they improved to 1-1 in the conference with their lone loss coming against a talented UCF squad, 40-13 on September 30th. Currently, the Tigers are 15th in the nation, throwing the ball for 316 yards per game.
Last season, the Navy Midshipmen put up 447 rushing yards in a 42-28 win over the Memphis Tigers at home in Annapolis, Maryland.
(24) Navy Midshipmen (5-0)
The Navy Midshipmen are shooting for their third road win of the season to build on their 5-0 start. In fact, the Midshipmen have won four straight road games overall. They also are coming into this clash with the Tigers off a thrilling 48-45 come-from-behind victory over their rivals, the Air Force Falcons.
In that game, quarterback Zach Abbey led the Navy offense with 214 yards on the ground on 29 carries and two touchdowns. The feisty competitor also threw the ball 11 times completing four passes for 86 yards and two scores. The leader of the country’s number one rushing offense has amassed 870 yards via the ground with nine trips to the back of the end zone. Navy doesn’t pass very often, but Abbey has completed 16 passes for 471 yards with five touchdowns and two picks.
Running back Malcolm Perry is also starting to heat up at the midway point of the season. Consequently, he has rumbled over the century mark in three straight games. Furthermore, Perry had his best performance to date against the Falcons. In that grudge-match, the tailback rushed for 127 yards on only four carries and a score.
Obviously, passing the football is something the Navy Midshipmen don’t find themselves doing very often. The Mids like to use the play-action pass after their potent rushing attack has softened up the opposing team’s secondaries. When they do exercise that option, they look to wideout Tyler Carmona to come up big. So far so good, as Carmona has reeled in five balls for 204 yards and three trips to the promised land.
Defensively, Navy is succumbing to 27.6 points and 398.4 yards per match. Linebacker Sean Williams leads the Midshipmen with 38 tackles. Defensive end D.J. Palmore has 2.5 sacks and safety Micah Thomas has one interception. Their 71st-ranked pass defense will face its biggest test of the year when they face the Tigers awesome pass offense.
Memphis Tigers (4-1)
The Memphis Tigers offense had quite the output against the hapless Connecticut defense last Friday night. The Tigers rolled up 70 points and over 700 yards of total offense. Leading the way was quarterback Riley Ferguson. The full-sleeved tattooed thrower was unstoppable, passing for 431 yards and a ridiculous seven touchdowns with no picks. In 2017, the senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,535 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Tigers also found some success running the football against the Huskies, rushing for 231 yards on 41 carries. The Memphis backfield has done a good job keeping the offense balanced in 2017, ranking 44th in the nation with 192 yards per game. Darrell Henderson leads this squad with 55 carries for 448 yards and three touchdowns.
When you mention Riley Ferguson you have to mention his favorite target, Anthony Miller. It has been number four to number three all season long. Together, the two make up one of the best pass-catch combos in the nation. after the UConn game, Miller now has caught 35 passes for 513 yards and seven touchdowns. Teammates Joey Magnifico and Phil Mayhue help support the passing attack. Combined, the two pass catchers have reeled in 28 passes for almost 350 yards and four more scores.
As in their previous games, the Tigers defense inexcusably gave up 477 total yards against the Huskies. Fortunately, they did find a way to force three turnovers in the victory. The defense has been a failure this year, allowing schools to pass for 319 yards a game (128th). The front seven isn’t anything to brag about either, surrendering 187 yards via the ground (94th). Also, the Tigers defense has suffered considerable losses to this side of the ball and will struggle with the Navy triple-option this weekend.
Prediction
Both of these clubs are coming into this conference battle full of confidence. The Tigers put up 70 points against the Huskies and the Midshipmen defeated the arch rivals the Air Force Falcons in dramatic fashion. Furthermore, both of these offenses strengths bode well against the others defensive weaknesses. That smells like an over waiting to happen to me.
Las Vegas has this game’s over/under at 75 and this is exactly where I suggest you make your play. These two offenses should go up and down the field on one another for all four quarters. The 75 points may seem high but it won’t when the score is 28-24 at halftime. Don’t over think this one, just put your hard-earned cash on this contest’s over 75 and enjoy all the offense these two teams have to offer.
Oddsmakers also have the Tigers as a -3.5 point favorite at home against the undefeated Navy Midshipmen. With the Tigers putting that lousy defense on the field week after week I’m not exactly sure why. Yes, I think that Riley Ferguson will get plenty of yardage and points in this game but so will Zach Abby and the Naval running game. Another factor to consider is that Mr. Ferguson might be on the sidelines for a large portion of this game but the Midshipmen might score so often that that won’t be a problem.
Either way, this game is set to be a shoot-out and in those type of games, anybody could win by a touchdown. With this game being played in the Liberty Bowl, I truly believe it is a toss-up. Stay away from the 3.5 line here because the over bet is clearly the better play in this conference match-up. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Midshipmen are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
The Over is 12-4 in the Midshipmen last 16 conference games.
The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
The Over is 20-8 in the Tigers last 28 home games.
Swing in HERE to make your play on this AAC Conference match-up this Saturday.
