As the NBA prepares for a board of governors vote on May 28 about proposed lottery reform, a recent analysis examined how often top draft picks translate into championships. The findings show that landing a top-five selection is a high-reward gamble, but not a frequent route to titles.
The study looked at the 100 players taken in the top five from 2000 through 2019. Of those, 44 won a playoff series as a rotation player for the team that drafted them (or traded for them on draft night), while 56 never advanced past the first round for that original team. Rotation players were defined as those averaging at least 20 minutes per game; without that threshold, four additional players would count: Darko Milicic, Dante Exum, Markelle Fultz and Tyrus Thomas.
The most common outcome for top-five picks in that span was zero playoff series wins, followed by just one series victory. On average, across a given draft’s top five, the breakdown was roughly three players who never won a playoff series for their original team, one who won one to two series, and one who won three or more.
Longevity with the drafting club was limited. Top-five picks from 2000 through 2019 averaged 5.1 seasons with their original teams, with 56% remaining through a fifth season and 44% departing earlier. Only 6% played at least 10 seasons with the team that drafted them; the report noted Jayson Tatum will raise that figure to 7% next season. As of the study, five players from that cohort remained with their original clubs: Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
The paths to championship rosters more commonly include free agency, trades and lower-drafted players rather than landing top-five picks. As The Athletic’s John Hollinger observed, recent Finals teams have relied very little on tanking. The analysis cited Oklahoma City as an example: No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren was the only player on that roster acquired directly by landing a top pick, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton arrived via trade.
