The Denver Broncos’ defense has done everything they can to keep their playoff hopes alive heading in to Week 16 of the regular season but their offense – namely the running game and offensive line – aren’t doing their part. The schedule certainly hasn’t done the defending Super Bowl champions any favors. Denver will follow up a loss to the New England Patriots with a date against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend and it will take a win and a little help for them to keep their postseason chances alive.
Moneyline: Chiefs -230
Handicap/Spread Odds: Chiefs -3.5
Total O/U: 37.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/27/16 | KC 30 – DEN 27 x | KC 3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/15/15 | KC 29 – DEN 13 | KC 3.5 | P 42 |
| 09/17/15 | DEN 31 – KC 24 | DEN 3 | O 42 |
| 11/30/14 | DEN 29 – KC 16 | DEN 1 | U 49 |
| 09/14/14 | KC 17 – DEN 24 | KC 13 | U 49 |
On The Broncos Side of the Ball (8-6 Record, 8-6 ATS)
The Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses to the Tennessee Titans and New England. Their schedule won’t get any easier with a trip to Kansas City before returning home to host the Oakland Raiders in Week 17. Trevor Siemian has shown flashes of his potential this season but he was held to 25-of-40 passing for 282 yards with an interception and he was sacked four times in last week’s loss to the Patriots and Denver managed only a field goal.
Meanwhile, it certainly didn’t help that the Broncos rushing attack couldn’t get going as Justin Forsett and Devontae Booker were held to 58 yards on 17 carries. The Broncos will need to find some sort of balance if they are going to have any chance on the road against a tough Kansas City defense. Meanwhile, tensions finally boiled over between the Denver offense and defense following last week’s loss as it led to a fight in the locker room. The Broncos defense will likely need another outstanding effort in order to slow the Chiefs down and give their offense an opportunity to win on the road this weekend.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | NE | L 3-16 | L 3 | U 43 |
| 12/11/16 | @TEN | L 10-13 | L 2 | U 44 |
| 12/04/16 | @JAC | W 20-10 | W -3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/16 | KC | L 27-30 x | L -3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/13/16 | @NO | W 25-23 | W 3 | U 50 |
On The Chiefs Side of the Ball (10-4 Record, 7-7 ATS)
Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 19-17 loss to the Titans as their offense failed to capitalize on three turnovers from their defense in a sloppy performance last week. Alex Smith was held to 163 yards and an interception although he did rush for 11 yards and a touchdown. Smith will need to be better against the Broncos, while the Chiefs will need another strong performance from the running back tandem of Spencer Ware and Tyreek Hill. Hill dominated Denver in the first meeting between these teams when he became the first player since Gale Sayers to score a rushing, receiving and return touchdown in the same game. Meanwhile, the Kansas City defense will attempt to put together another dominant performance after holding its last two opponents to under 20 points.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | TEN | L 17-19 | L -6 | U 43 |
| 12/08/16 | OAK | W 21-13 | W -3.5 | U 46 |
| 12/04/16 | @ATL | W 29-28 | W 5 | O 50 |
| 11/27/16 | @DEN | W 30-27 x | W 3.5 | O 40 |
| 11/20/16 | TB | L 17-19 | L -7 | U 45 |
Quick Analysis
The Chiefs are 8-2 in their last 10 home games but they are just 2-8 against the spread over that span. The fact that the Under has hit in nine of those 10 games is probably an indication of why Kansas City hasn’t covered. Denver is 4-3 on the road this season and 2-2 ATS in their last four road games overall.
Prediction
The Broncos deserve a ton of credit for staying in the playoff hunt but their offense hasn’t been good enough to think this team can be a legitimate threat come playoff time. Kansas City will look to bounce back at home with a much better effort than they showed against the Titans last week with a chance to move one step closer to clinching an AFC West title and one of the top two seeds in the conference. The Chiefs should be able to hold the Denver offense in check long enough to pull away in this one and while it will be close we like them to win and cover at home.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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