The Houston Texans were forced to make an important decision with their season on the line and the switch they made at quarterback kept their playoff hopes alive for now. Houston head coach Bill O’Brien made the call to bench Brock Osweiler and roll with Tom Savage and his gamble paid off in a 21-20 comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. That was critical as the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts both won last week.
The Texans enter this week tied for the best record in the AFC South but they own the tiebreaker over the Tennessee Titans based on head-to-head win percentage. Now Houston will turn its attention to the Cincinnati Bengals with its destiny in its own hands for the time being.
Moneyline: Texans -130
Handicap/Spread Odds: Texans -2.5
Total O/U: 41.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/16/15 | HOU 10 – CIN 6 | HOU 10 | U 46.5 |
| 11/23/14 | CIN 22 – HOU 13 | CIN 3 | U 44.5 |
| 01/05/13 | CIN 13 – HOU 19 | HOU -4 | U 42.5 |
| 01/07/12 | CIN 10 – HOU 31 | HOU -4 | O 38 |
| 12/11/11 | HOU 20 – CIN 19 | HOU 2.5 | O 37.5 |
On The Bengals Side of the Ball (5-8-1 Record, 5-9 ATS)
The Bengals might not contend for a playoff spot this season but they sure seemed to relish the role of spoiler in last week’s 24-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati gave the Steelers all that they could handle as they scored on their first four possessions and led by as many as 14 points before Pittsburgh stormed back for the win. A big part of the collapse had to do with Andy Dalton’s poor play as he completed just 16-of-27 pass attempts for 157 yards and a brutal interception late in the game. The Bengals also struggled with penalties once again as they committed eight fouls for 86 yards, with four of those penalties coming in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati needs to clean up its game and stop committing penalties. The Bengals also need more out of Dalton and the passing attack if they are going to make this a competitive game on the road.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | PIT | L 20-24 | L 3 | U 45.5 |
| 12/11/16 | @CLE | W 23-10 | W -4.5 | U 42 |
| 12/04/16 | PHI | W 32-14 | W -2 | O 42 |
| 11/27/16 | @BAL | L 14-19 | L 3.5 | U 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | BUF | L 12-16 | L -2.5 | U 48 |
On The Texans Side of the Ball (8-6 Record, 6-7-1 ATS)
Savage will get the start in Week 16 after completing 23-of-36 passes for 260 yards in Houston’s comeback last week. Savage’s efficiency and lack of turnovers was crucial for the Texans after Osweiler had thrown a pair of interceptions earlier in the game. Houston will once again need Savage to play mistake-free football while also relying a little more on running back Lamar Miller, who had 63 rushing yards and a touchdown last week. The Texans defense came up big last week as they held Jacksonville to just 150 yards and nine first downs. That defense will look to get after Dalton and make life miserable for the Bengals offense this week. The crowd will definitely be pumped up to see Savage under center and if the offense can hold its own then there is a good chance that Houston will come through with another big win at home.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | JAC | W 21-20 | L -3.5 | O 39.5 |
| 12/11/16 | @IND | W 22-17 | W 6.5 | U 47.5 |
| 12/04/16 | @GB | L 13-21 | L 6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | SD | L 13-21 | L 2.5 | U 45.5 |
| 11/21/16 | @OAK | L 20-27 | L 6.5 | O 45.5 |
Quick Analysis
Houston is already 6-1 at home this season including a 4-2-1 mark against the spread and the fans really got fired up every time Savage completed a pass last week. The Bengals are just 2-5 on the road this season including a 1-5-1 mark against the spread and it’s hard to predict what to expect from them in a potential letdown following a rivalry game against the Steelers last week.
Prediction
The Texans are coming off back-to-back wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Jaguars and they will remain in control of their own destiny with a win this week before travelling to face the Tennessee Titans next week. Cincinnati is coming off another disappointing loss to Pittsburgh at home last week and considering how they have struggled on the road this season, it’s hard to envision them upsetting Houston on Saturday.
Pick: Texans -2.5
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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