The Chicago Bulls (5-16) will try to slow down the league’s top scoring team when they challenge the Milwaukee Bucks (14-6) at Fiserv Forum. The game will air on WGN Channel 9 at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 28, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 227.5 points with Milwaukee set as a 13.5-point favorite.
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
Although the Bulls were defeated by the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, 108-107, they were able to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (215) were just under the projected point total of 215.5. San Antonio’s 15.2 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Chicago, who had a rate of 11.4. The Spurs’ mark was below their season average of 23.9, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 16.4. Zach LaVine was the top scorer from either team with 28 points on 10-for-26 shooting.
The last time the Bucks played, they lost a tough one to the Charlotte Hornets, 110-107, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (217) were well under the O/U total of 233. One of Charlotte’s largest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They made 30 trips to the line, while Milwaukee went 21 times. With 20 points on 7-for-15 shooting, Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee in scoring.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Khris Middleton had 23 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in the first game, in which the Bucks defeated the Bulls 123-104, covering as 14.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was just 1.5 points above the projected point total of 225.5 points. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 8.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.118 vs. 0.096).
Chicago holds records of 5-16 straight up (SU) and 10-11 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bulls’ 21 games, 14 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 14-6 SU and 11-9 ATS. Unlike Chicago, games including the Bucks have typically finished over the total (70.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jabari Parker (21 points,8.8 rebounds,3.6 assists,1.2 steals) has been stellar for the Bulls while Antetokounmpo (31 points,13.8 rebounds,6.0 assists,1.6 steals) has contributed greatly to the Bucks.
The productive offense of Milwaukee will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of Chicago. The Bucks rank first in offensive efficiency, while the Bulls are 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Bucks should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Also, the Bulls, who rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (16.2 percent), will square off against the Bucks, who rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.3 percent).
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Chicago is 3-6 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 4 overs.
At home, Milwaukee is 8-4 ATS with 9 overs and 3 unders.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Chicago is 2-1 and Milwaukee is 3-0.
When reaching 100 points, the Bucks are 14-6 and the Bulls are 3-9.
Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (50.6) while Chicago ranks 29th in rebounds allowed per game (49.5).
The Bucks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (40.8) while the Bulls rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (34.4).
Milwaukee averages 6.0 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Chicago ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (6.8).
The Bucks average 27.3 assists per game, which ranks second in the league. The Bulls rank 24th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Milwaukee ranks second in points in the paint per game (56.3) while Chicago ranks 23rd (44.8).
The Bucks average 17.45 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 11 in the NBA. The Bulls rank 23 in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.238095238095237).
Milwaukee ranks 2 in second chance points allowed per game (10.75) while Chicago ranks 13 (12.952380952380953).
The Bucks rank 1 in fast break points allowed per game (9.35) while the Bulls rank 12 (13.19047619047619).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Chicago is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Bulls’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 10.8, up from 9.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 120.6 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (0.7 above their season average).
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