It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the Houston Rockets (9-10) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (9-9) to the Toyota Center. The game will air on ATTSN Southwest at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 28, 2018.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Betting Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after topping the Boston Celtics in their last game, 113-104, as 2.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (217) finished over the projected point total of 213. The Mavericks had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 22.6), while the Celtics had a turnover percentage of 15.6 (above their season average of 11.6). Dallas received a boost from DeAndre Jordan, who contributed 14 points and 13 rebounds.
The last time the Rockets played, they were beaten by the Washington Wizards, 135-131. They failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (266) came in well over the projected point total of 223.5. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Washington’s largest strengths. They had 32 free throw attempts, while Houston had 27. With 54 points on 17-for-32 shooting, James Harden was the top scorer from either team.
After the Rockets won all four meetings against the Mavericks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Houston won 105-82. Houston’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Dallas. The Rockets had a rate of 0.565 while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.378.
Dallas heads into the game with records of 9-9 straight up (SU) and 12-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 10 of their 18 games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 9-10 SU and 7-12 ATS. Much like Dallas, games featuring the Rockets also have typically gone over the projected point total (57.9 percent).
Harden and Clint Capela have played well over the last five games for Houston. Harden has averaged 35 points,8.2 assists,2.0 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Capela has put up 20 points,14.4 rebounds,3.0 blocks a game during that span.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Houston. Houston ranks 20th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.1 percent), while the pesky defense of Dallas forces the eighth-most turnovers in the NBA (14.9 percent). Additionally, the Mavericks, who rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.226), could earn plenty of trips to the line against the Rockets, who rank 30th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.244).
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Free Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 4-4 ATS with 4 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Houston is 3-5 ATS with 5 overs and 3 unders.
In contests where they allow under 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and Houston is 4-2.
The Mavericks are 9-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Rockets are 7-6.
Dallas ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while Houston ranks 24th (50.5).
The Rockets rank third in fast break points allowed per game (10.8) while the Mavericks rank 21st (14.4).
Houston ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.0) while Dallas ranks 21st (4.7).
The Rockets rank second in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Mavericks rank 18th (23.9).
Houston ranks 12th in steals per game (8.1) while Dallas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (9.3).
The Rockets rank 1 in three pointers attempted per game (41.78947368421053) while the Mavericks rank 12 in three pointers allowed per game (30.38888888888889).
Dallas ranks 17 in rebounds per game (44.611111111111114) while Houston ranks 28 (40.73684210526316).
The Mavericks rank 5 in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Rockets rank 15 (13.368421052631579).
Dallas ranks 12 in points off turnovers per game (17.27777777777778) while Houston ranks 20 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.526315789473685).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Houston is 1-4 ATS with 5 overs over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.6, up from 1.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 121.6 points per game (13.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 120.8 points per game (11.5 above their season average).
*****
