The Baylor Bears and No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers are set to go at it on the turf at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. FS1 will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET. These schools faced off last year with the final outcome being a 38-36 victory for West Virginia.
Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview
In this Thursday Big 12 matchup, West Virginia has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Bears are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Mountaineers are -735. Should one school finds paydirt in the early stages it will produce a nice betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 65 points.
The game’s total has shifted up after initially being set at 62. The opening line (-14) has remained consistent.
The Bears have gained 0.7 units so far in 2018 and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-2. The Mountaineers have gained 0.7 units this season. The team is 4-2 ATS and owns an O/U record of 2-4.
The Bears are 4-3 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against conference opponents. The Mountaineers are 5-1 SU overall and are also 3-1 SU in conference play.
The Bears dropped one to Texas 23-17 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Longhorns to run for 170 yards on 41 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Collin Johnson had a good day for the opposition in that one with 132 yards and a score on 11 catches. On the offensive side, Charlie Brewer completed only 20 passes on 39 attempts for 240 yards, along with a score and a pick. Jalen Hurd (five receptions, 72 yards) and Chris Platt (five catches, 26 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Two weeks ago, Iowa State knocked off this West Virginia team by a score of 30-14. The Mountaineers defensive unit allowed the Cyclones to rush for 244 yards on 47 attempts, along with one rushing TD. David Montgomery torched the defense, putting up 189 rushing yards and a score on 29 attempts for Iowa State. For West Virginia, Will Grier completed 11-of-15 passes for 100 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Grier (-33 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and Kennedy McKoy (55 yards on nine carries) spearheaded the running game as Gary Jennings Jr. (four receptions, 38 yards) and Marcus Simms (two catches, eight yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Baylor has run the ball on 47.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while West Virginia has a rush percentage of 50.4 percent. The Bears have run for 162 yards/game (including 154 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are averaging 144 rushing yards per game (114 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
The Bears offense has averaged 313 yards in the air overall (302 per game versus conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Mountaineers have put up 321 pass yards per outing (289.5 against Big 12 competition) and have 22 total pass scores.
Defensively, Baylor has allowed 190 rush yards and 218 pass yards per game. The West Virginia D has given up 218.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.3 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.67 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have allowed a 6.40 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brewer has put up 1,502 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 122-of-201 attempts with nine scores through the air and only two interceptions. He has a 7.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.00 over the past two games.
As a group, Jalen Hurd, Denzel Mims and Trestan Ebner have combined for 575 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Will Grier has managed to complete 109-of-151 passes for 1,587 yards, 18 TDs and four INTs for West Virginia. His ANY/A sits at 10.23 for the season and 3.84 over his last two games.
We’re expecting the Mountaineers to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. David Sills V (316 receiving yards, six TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Kennedy McKoy (299 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Leddie Brown (296 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the West Virginia offense.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers
SU Winner – West Virginia, ATS Winner – West Virginia, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
Both teams have lost three fumbles this season.
The Baylor defense has 14 sacks on the year while West Virginia has 11.
Baylor has rushed for 3.5 yards per attempt over its past three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
West Virginia has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.5 over its past two.
Over its last three contests, West Virginia is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Baylor’s last game was 59. The under cashed in the team’s 23-17 defeat to Texas.
Over its last three matchups, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for West Virginia’s last outing was 54.5. The under cashed in the 30-14 loss to Iowa State.
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