The Fighting Illini (-26.5) are set to host their Big 10 foe No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions in Illinois. FS1 will broadcast the action and kickoff will take place at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Penn State is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 26.5 points to Illinois. Bookmakers haven’t determined what the game’s over/under (O/U) will be yet. Should one side gets out in front early, it will likely create a solid betting opportunity in-game.
The Nittany Lions are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 1.0 unit so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-0. The Fighting Illini have gained 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 0-3.
The Nittany Lions are 3-0 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any Big 10 competition yet. The Fighting Illini are 2-1 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Nittany Lions are looking to remain unbeaten after a 63-10 victory over Kent State last week. The Nittany Lions D did its part in the win, limiting the Golden Flashes to just 180 passing yards and 41 rushing yards. On the offensive side, Trace McSorley completed only 11 passes on 22 attempts for 229 yards, two scores and one interception. Miles Sanders (86 yards on 14 rushes) and Mark Allen (62 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the running attack while DeAndre Thompkins (four receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Sanders (three catches, 30 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A week ago, South Florida took care of this Illinois team by a score of 25-19. M.J. Rivers II completed 20-of-29 passes for 168 yards. Mike Epstein had a monster day in the loss. In addition to 113 rushing yards on 19 attempts (and one TD), Epstein also reeled in five catches for 56 yards.
Penn State has run the ball on 57.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Illinois has a rush percentage of 64.9 percent. The Nittany Lions have produced 238 rush yards per game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Fighting Illini are putting up 243 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.
Based on the early season results, it’s looking like the Nittany Lions should have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has produced 5.8 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Fighting Illini have rushed for 5.1 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Nittany Lions offense has logged 251 yards per contest in the air overall and has seven passing scores so far. The Fighting Illini have put up 165 pass yards per outing and have two total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 148 rush yards and 176 pass yards per game. The Illinois defense has allowed 325.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.7 yards per game on the ground. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.69 to opponents, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 6.24 ANY/A.
Offensively, McSorley is up to 458 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 54 percent of his 57 attempts with three scores through the air and one interception. McSorley’s got a 7.78 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.31 over the last two games.
On the other sideline, M.J. Rivers II has completed 20-of-29 passes for 168 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs. Rivers II’s ANY/A stands at a terrible 3.94 for the year and 5.58 over his last two outings.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to face one another in 2017.
NCAA Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
SU Winner – Illinois, ATS Winner – Illinois
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Penn State defensive unit has 13 sacks on the year while Illinois has just five.
Both teams have lost two fumbles this year.
The Nittany Lions offense has registered four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Fighting Illini have accounted for one such play.
The Penn State defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while Illinois has given up three such plays.
The Penn State offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Illinois has created nine such runs.
The Nittany Lions defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Fighting Illini have given up six such runs.
Illinois was getting 14 points in its previous outing and the O/U was set at 59. The under cashed and Illinois covered in the 25-19 defeat to South Florida.
In its last three matches, Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three games, Penn State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Penn State was favored by 36 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 64.5. The over cashed and Penn State covered in the 63-10 victory over Kent State.
Penn State has averaged 6.5 yards per carry over its last two games.
Illinois has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last two.
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