The college football playoff picture is starting to clear up after a few hectic weeks of action. Still, questions remain as to how many representatives each conference will get and who will be left out in the cold. As always, things are especially interesting in the SEC where the only remaining undefeated teams are Ole Miss and Mississippi State, who play each other in the last week of the season.
There’s a whole list of hypothetical scenarios that could play out, in the SEC alone, that could leave the playoff committee with a nightmare in their first season. For example, what if a team from the SEC East, that is to say Georgia, wins the SEC over a team from the much more dominant SEC West? Georgia would probably be in and fans of teams from the toughest division in football would be immediately clamouring for the playoff to extend to eight teams. And that’s only one way the end-of-year madness could play out.
Below is our prediction for how the college football playoff will shake out and where the pieces will fall into the other New Year’s bowls.
1. Ole Miss Rebels (7-0, 4-0 SEC) – Key Wins: Alabama, at Texas A&M – Remaining Schedule: at LSU, Auburn, Presbyterian, at Arkansas, Mississippi State. – Odds to win: (15/2) – The Rebels have several things going for them in this stretch run. Although they do have to face a down LSU team on the road, they have the benefit of hosting Auburn, and also the season finale against Mississippi State, a game that could very well pit No. 1 against No. 2 inside the same state. (Did anyone see that coming before the season began? The answer is no. No they did not). Even if the Rebels were to slip up before the game against their in-state rivals, they could still secure their spot in the playoff if they were to beat Mississippi State, granted the Bulldogs take care of business themselves up until then, which they are likely to do. Ole Miss will probably face Georgia in the SEC title game, and will hope to ride their defense in a win over the Bulldogs
2. Florida State Seminoles (7-0, 4-0 ACC) – Key Wins: Clemson, Notre Dame. – Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, Virginia, at Miami (FL), Boston College, Florida. – Odds to win: (7/1) – The Seminoles certainly have the easiest road to the end of the season, and will most likely face Duke in the ACC title game, which they should handle relatively easily. Although FSU’s two significant victories were close, they were able to defeat Clemson without Jameis Winston behind center. The Notre Dame victory was benefited by what some see as a questionable pass-interference call on the Irish’s last possession. Nevertheless, even though they are clearly not on the level they were last season, Florida State is undefeated, and should still be so by the time the selections are made, like it or not. If Jameis Winston finds another way to get himself actually suspended, we might have a different story, but don’t bet on it.
3. Oregon Ducks (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12) – Key Wins: Michigan State, at UCLA. – Remaining Schedule: at Cal, Stanford, at Utah, Colorado, at Oregon State. – Odds to win: (15/2) – The Michigan State win was huge for the Ducks. Even though it was early in the season, Michigan State hasn’t lost since, and has made Oregon look better and better each week. The Pac-12 may be down this season according to most, but that certainly isn’t the Ducks fault. They have responded well since narrowly losing to a very good Arizona team 31-24 two weeks ago. Oregon still has yet to face a very good Utah and Stanford teams, but the Ducks have the firepower to get past both. The conference title game is still very much up in the air, with USC, Arizona, and Arizona State all competing for the South division crown. Keep in mind also that Oregon has the added slight benefit over say, a TCU team, due to actually having a conference title game. Marcus Mariota is still yet to throw a single interception this season, and will surely continue his near-perfect play, possibly winning a Heisman in the process.
4. Michigan State (6-1, 3-0 Big 10) – Key Wins: Nebraska – Remaining Schedule: Michigan, Ohio State, at Maryland, Rutgers, at Penn State. – Odds to win: (9/1) – While the Spartans have the least credentials thus far of these four teams, they are poised to acquire more down the stretch if all goes to plan. Their win against Nebraska was a good one, and they might have to do it again in the Big 10 title game. Michigan State can still make an impression by beating No. 13 Ohio State, and pad their resume with victories over solid Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State teams. The Spartans benefit from Alabama and Mississippi State having to play each other and other playoff contenders within their conference. Michigan State’s loss to Oregon was early enough in the season for them to recover from. The SEC will have some very deserving one-loss teams by seasons end, but if the Spartans can take care of business in the stretch run then they will have a conference championship under their belt, which will be just enough for them to get the nod. If there is a slip-up on the Spartan’s end, expect their spot to be filled by Notre Dame.
New Years Bowls
- Cotton Bowl: TCU vs. Alabama
- Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
- Fiesta Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Baylor
