NCAAF Picks: The California Golden Bears play an exciting brand of football in that they score a lot of points but also allow a lot of points. That combination makes Cal a bubble team for a bowl berth. The Oregon Ducks, on the other hand, have responded well to adversity with two impressive wins that followed their only loss of the season.
The Golden Bears will host the Ducks at California Memorial Stadium on Friday night with coverage on Fox Sports One starting at 10 PM ET. Oregon is listed as a 19-point favorite.
Back on Track
Oregon is 6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread, and 3-3-1 on totals after a 45-20 home payout over Washington last week. The Ducks are the sixth highest scoring team in the nation but have a defense that ranks 101st overall. Heisman hopeful Marcus Mariota has been outstanding with a sparkling 191 QB rating and 19-0 TD-INT ratio while also rushing for 5.2 yards per carry.
Bears are Golden
Cal is 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, and 4-3 over the total after a close 36-34 home loss to UCLA as 6.5 point home dogs. Cal boasts the nation’s third ranked pass attack. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 167.3 QB rating with a 24-4 TD-INT ratio. A defense that ranks 124th in the country is a major liability that could cost the Bears a bowl bid.
Matchup and Pick
Oregon has been a strong betting value on the road as of late with 12 payouts in their last 16 away games. The Ducks have gone under the total in five out of their last six away games.
Cal has struggled with betting value at home with just three payouts in their last 16 home games. The Bears have gone under the total in just three out of their last 11 home games.
Oregon has controlled the cashier’s cage in this head to head series with four payouts in their last five games against Cal. The Ducks and Bears have gone under the total in 10 out of their last 13 meetings. Oregon won and covered their last visit to Cal 59-17 as the game soared over the total of 67.5. This should be a high flying shootout but Oregon has too much quality depth that should wear down the Bears. We’ll call for Oregon (-19) and over the total.
