Another week past, and another set of playoff rankings from the committee. No. 11 Ole Miss can safely be considered out after a loss to No. 3 Auburn on Saturday, but don’t bet on the Tigers to be among the top four by season’s end.
No. 5 Alabama is right on the cusp of breaking into the top four, but must first dispatch of a red hot No. 16 LSU team looking to build a late season case for themselves in Baton Rouge this weekend. No. 6 TCU and No. 7 Kansas State square off in what can legitimately be considered an elimination game in Ft. Worth on Saturday, but either winner still faces and uphill climb and will need timely help from other teams losing if they want to find a way in.
College Football Playoff Projection Week 11:
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 8-0 (5-0 SEC) Odds to win: 7/1The Bulldogs squeaked out a win at home last week against a pretty decent Arkansas team by a score of 17-10, needing some late game heroics from quarterback Dak Prescott for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter.
At first glance, it might seem like a bad sign late in the season for Mississippi State, but keep in mind that this is the same Arkansas team that competed against Auburn, lost to Texas A&M in overtime, and lost to Alabama a month ago by one point.
The Bulldogs have what is essentially a week off when they host Ohio Valley Conference team UT Martin this Saturday. The easy matchup comes at a good time for MSU, as Dak Prescott was hobbled by a lingering foot injury most of the game against the Razorbacks, and could definitely benefit from a break. The Bulldogs will hope to have their Heisman candidate at 100% before beginning the stretch run that includes Alabama and Ole Miss.
Why they could fall: Dak Prescott and the Bulldog offense were clearly slowed without Prescott’s added ability as a runner due to his injury. If he continues to be affected by his foot, MSU might not have enough firepower to overcome both Alabama and Ole Miss.[divider]
2. Florida State Seminoles
Record: 8-0 (5-0 ACC) Odds to win: 6/1The Seminoles pulled off a massive come-from-behind 42-31 victory last week on the road against a surging Louisville team in an exciting Thursday night matchup. The victory was their fourth of the season when trailing at halftime. Quarterback Jameis Winston overcame a three interception start to finish with 401 yards through the air, with touchdown passes of 68, 47, and 35 yards.
Florida State has continued to show resilience and calm in the face of deficits and games that are close late, a trait that will only benefit them in the playoff format should they reach it as expected. The Seminoles have pretty smooth sailing to close the season before likely facing Duke in the ACC title game. If Florida State takes care of business, they’re in.
Why they could fall: FSU’s defense has not been anywhere near the level of their 2013 team. The Seminoles continue to give up points even while keeping opposing yardage to a manageable level, and currently rank 42nd nationally, giving up an average of 22.8 points per game. Then again, maybe Seminole tight end Nick O’Leary could teach the defense on how to make open field tackles:
Fortunately, Jameis Winston has been able to bail the team out numerous times this season, but it is still not a given should the defense allow a big deficit yet again. [divider]
3. Oregon Ducks
Record: 8-1 (5-1 Pac-12) Odds to win: 5/1The Ducks were finally able to move into the committee’s top four on Tuesday night after a convincing win over a Stanford team that usually ends up playing the spoiler role to Oregon’s championship aspirations. The Ducks put up 45 points against a stout Stanford defense that was allowing an average of 12.5 points per game. Marcus Mariota continued his path to the Heisman with 258 yards through the air and another 85 on the ground. He had a total of four touchdowns, although he finally threw his first interception of the season in the 3rd quarter.
The Ducks go on the road to face a tough Utah team this Saturday, and end the season with some relatively easy matchups against Colorado and Oregon State.
Why they could fall: The one-loss Ducks have no room for error. Although they own a win against a contending Michigan State team, one-loss teams such as TCU, Kansas State, and even Arizona State could sneak in should the Ducks have a slip-up.[divider]
4. Michigan State Spartans
Record: 7-1 (4-0 Big Ten) Odds to win: 9/1Michigan State had this past weekend off, and no doubt enjoyed seeing Ole Miss go down to Auburn. What they didn’t enjoy however, was being passed in the rankings by Kansas State.
The Spartans, currently ranked No. 8 in the College Football Playoff poll, have one of their last chances to make a statement to the committee this Saturday when they host No. 14 Ohio State. Head coach Mark Dantonio knows that a big win could raise the stock of a team that many still have well outside of the top four. With the Buckeyes out of the way, the Spartans should breeze through a few remaining tune-up games before heading into the Big 10 title game, where they will likely face a one-loss Nebraska team that they narrowly beat earlier in the season.
Why they could fall: Michigan State has probably the least control of their own destiny out of all the top 10 contenders. They will likely need losses from both Alabama and Auburn, and also need Nebraska to remain a one-loss team heading into the conference title game.
