The Auburn Tigers managed to get past the Ole Miss Rebels this past Saturday, escaping by the hair on Gus Malzahn’s chin. That keeps their College Football Playoff dream alive…for now. But how sustainable is this for Auburn? Here’s three reasons why their bubble will be burst in the coming weeks.
1. The Tigers Can’t Continue To Get This Lucky; The Odds Are Going To Catch Up With Them
The Auburn Tigers keep finding incredible ways to win football games. First, there was the Hail Mary in the final seconds of a win over Georgia last year, a tipped pass that remarkably fell into the hands of receiver Ricardo Louis. Then, in that same month of November from 2013, the Tigers watched Chris Davis take a missed Alabama field goal and run it 100 yards for a winning touchdown.
No big college football game with national championship implications had ever ended quite that way, with such a wacky scene to be absorbed. Auburn benefited from two very improbable plays in 2013, getting to the national championship game as a result. Lots of people thought that Auburn couldn’t possibly get lucky on a similar level this season, but that’s exactly what has happened.
On Saturday, the Tigers led Ole Miss by four, 35-31, inside the two-minute mark of regulation. Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell took a pass and ran to the goal line. In real time, he seemed to have scored a touchdown, but on further review from replay, it became clear that Treadwell lost the ball before he arrived at the goal line. Treadwell dislocated his ankle, and the pain of his injury caused him to lose possession of the ball. Auburn recovered the fumble and escaped with a victory.
Why will Auburn not make the College Football Playoff? It can’t continue to rely on such unprecedented luck – that alone is a powerful reason to discount the Tigers as the season moves along.
2. The Tigers Have To Go To Alabama
This is probably the best reason why Auburn isn’t going to make the College Football Playoff. It’s not just enough that Alabama wants revenge over Auburn after last year’s Iron Bowl, referenced above with the 109-yard field goal return on the last play of the game. The Crimson Tide will get this game at home and should be able to control the way in which this game is played.
Auburn will have to be clearly better than Alabama in order to win on the road, but Auburn has not been a consistent team this season. The Tigers’ rushing attack has not blown open holes the way it did in 2013, when it took the SEC by storm. Auburn is extremely vulnerable heading into that game against the Tide.
3. No Tre Mason
The Tigers did begin to run the ball with some success on Saturday night against Ole Miss, but they have never approximated the way in which they ran the ball last season with Heisman Trophy finalist Tre Mason in their backfield. This is an area in which Auburn has failed to make the right small-scale adjustments and tactical shifts that can allow its running game to come alive. This is yet another reason why the Tigers won’t make the first College Football Playoff.
