The Toronto Raptors (5-0) try to stay unbeaten when they meet the Dallas Mavericks (2-2) at Scotiabank Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, October 26, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 226.5 points with Toronto opening as an 11.5-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
The Mavericks were not able to cover as 2-point favorites in their 111-104 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in their last game. The game’s total points (215) came in well under the projected point total of 235.5. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Atlanta’s largest advantages. They had 31 free throw attempts, while Dallas had 26. DeAndre Jordan played well for Dallas, finishing with 11 points and 16 rebounds.
The last time the Raptors played, they were victorious over the Minnesota Timberwolves, 112-105, but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (217) were under the O/U total of 226. Toronto had a better effective field goal percentage (0.579 vs. 0.495). Minnesota, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7 (above their season average of 23.1). Kawhi Leonard was the game’s leading scorer with 35 points on 15-for-23 shooting.
Toronto could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their upper-echelon offense squares off against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Raptors rank fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.541), while Dallas ranks 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.535) since the 2017-18 season.
The Mavericks have had records of 26-60 straight up (SU) and 45-40-1 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games featuring Dallas have had a tendency to finish under the projected point total since last season (57.0 percent).
The Raptors, meanwhile, have records of 64-23 SU and 51-44-2 ATS since last season. Vegas has been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Toronto games over that same time frame with 52 overs compared to 44 unders.
These two teams split two games last season. In the last contest, the Raptors won 122-115. Toronto was successful at getting and making free throws. The Raptors made 26 of their 31 free throws (83.9 percent), while the Mavericks were 13-18 (72.2 percent).
Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Dallas is 16-13 when they allow below 100 points, while Toronto is 30-5.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Mavericks are 20-30 and the Raptors are 62-19.
Toronto ranks second in blocks per game (6.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (3.9).
The Raptors rank sixth in points in the paint per game (48.9) while the Mavericks rank 29th (39.2).
Toronto ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while Dallas ranks 26th (45.5).
The Raptors rank 12th in second chance points per game (12.8) while the Mavericks rank 29th (10.6).
Toronto averages 13.4 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Dallas ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
The Raptors rank 12th in points off turnovers per game (16.7) while the Mavericks rank 26th (14.9).
Toronto ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (25.2) while Dallas ranks 15th (29.5).
The Raptors rank sixth in assists per game (24.1) while the Mavericks rank 17th in assists allowed per game (23.6).
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