The Los Angeles Clippers (42-37) square off with the Denver Nuggets (44-35) at Staples Center. The game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 7, 2018, and will air on NBATV.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221.5 points with neither team favored.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers Betting Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last game, they topped the Minnesota Timberwolves, 100-96. One of Denver’s largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 19-22 (86.4 percent), while the Timberwolves were 12-16 (75.0 percent). Nikola Jokic fueled Denver with 16 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists.
The Clippers were blown out by the Utah Jazz in their last matchup, 117-95. Utah’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Los Angeles. The Jazz had a rate of 8.6 (better than their season average of 13.3), while the Clippers posted a mark of 14.9. With 17 points, Montrezl Harrell had a good game for Los Angeles.
Los Angeles does a solid job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.225), but Denver is among the best in the NBA at keeping opponents off the line (ranking fifth by allowing a FTA rate of 0.172). Additionally, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while the Clippers rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.9 percent).
Denver comes into the contest with records of 44-35 straight up (SU) and 35-41-3 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets games have gone over the total 50.6 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles owns records of 42-37 SU and 42-36-1 ATS. Similarly to Denver, a little over half of Clippers games have finished over the total.
Jokic and Paul Millsap have been playing well over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 26.2 points, 11.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Millsap has put up 22.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.2 blocks a game during that span.
The Clippers have won both matchups against the Nuggets this season, including a narrow two-point victory the last time these teams met. Los Angeles covered as a 6-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 242 points, which was 14 points above the projected point total of 228 points. The Clippers had a better offensive rebounding percentage (30.2 vs. 26.8) and had a better turnover percentage (14.9 vs. 16.6). Lou Williams was the game’s leading scorer with 25 points.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 16-21-2 ATS on the road with 20 overs, 18 unders and 1 push.
Los Angeles is 18-20 ATS at home with 22 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
Los Angeles is 13-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 14-2.
The Clippers are 40-24 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 38-25.
Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (10.8) while Los Angeles ranks 26th (13.3).
The Nuggets rank ninth in fast break points per game (13.4) while the Clippers rank 29th in fast break points allowed per game (15.2).
Los Angeles averages 51.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Denver ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.1).
The Nuggets rank fifth in assists per game (25.1) while the Clippers rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.3).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Los Angeles ranks 16th (43.6).
The Nuggets average 7.7 steals per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Clippers rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Denver averages 4.9 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
The Nuggets average 31.0 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Clippers rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
Denver averages 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.4, up from 1.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Clippers have scored an average of 103.8 points per game (5.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.4 points per game (0.1 below their season average).
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