With their victory Thursday night, the Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1) became the second team to clinch a playoff spot, locking in the NFC West title and a home game. The same can’t be said for me this week. Ultimately I’m in a battle not only with every other NFL “expert,” but with myself. Back in 2012 I went 170-95-1. It was an incredible picks season by any measure and I’m right in that ballpark again.
Not only do I have that record to shoot for, I have my historic 10-1 near-perfect playoff run last season. My current mark (after Thursday’s game) puts me at 127-80-2, 11 full games back from the NFL Network’s Elliot Harrison who leads the entire picks community at 138-69-2. He is my target now.
As always, let’s get fired up before we make these picks and there’s nobody better to kick off the weekend than Diamond Dave.
Saturday Night
Miami at New York Jets (+2.5)
Bryce Petty got his first win with the Jets (4-9) last Sunday. If this team shows up on defense, the Dolphins (8-5) with Matt Moore will have a tough time playing in the cold. Plus, the psychological damage of losing your quarterback and your realistic shot at the NFL playoffs is a hard thing to overcome. Jets 17, Dolphins 14
Sunday Early Games
Green Bay at Chicago (+5.5)
Aaron Rodgers is doing enough to keep the Packers (7-6) in the NFL playoff picture and, unfortunately, Mike McCarthy a job. The Bears (3-10) are just playing out the season and, really, would do well to just roll over to raise their draft stock. Packers 34, Bears 24
Jacksonville at Houston (-5)
The Gus Bradley farewell tour for the Jaguars (2-11) comes to Houston Sunday. Unfortunately it delays the Bill O’Brien farewell tour for the Texans (7-6). Texans 24, Jags 17
Cleveland at Buffalo (-10)
Nothing would be sweeter than to see the Browns (0-13) get their first, and surely only, win of the season against a Bills (6-7) team that Rex Ryan has run straight into the ground. I’m not betting on it, but I’m rooting for it. Bills 24, Browns 20
Philadelphia at Baltimore (-5.5)
The Ravens (7-6) need to win out to have any chance to make the NFL playoffs. The Eagles (5-8) are just playing for pride and to continue developing Carson Wentz as a quarterback. The dream of a non-losing season ends Sunday. Ravens 31, Eagles 20
Tennessee at Kansas City (-5.5)
Mike Mularkey got the biggest win of his life last week when the Titans (7-6) beat the Broncos. Can he top it against the Chiefs (10-3) and lead his team to three wins in a row? Has Hell frozen over? Is Hitler ice dancing with Osama Bin Laden? Chiefs 30, Titans 17
Detroit at New York Giants (-4)
The Giants (9-4) proved they’re a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. Matt Stafford’s finger may be the reason t e Lions (9-4) won’t be. Giants 27, Lions 24
Indianapolis at Minnesota (-4)
The four-point spread favoring the Vikings (7-6) doesn’t reflect the real chance the Colts (6-7) have of winning this game. Minnesota’s offense and line remains a problem. Their defense is still great, but this is a team barely hanging on. This is the week they go off the cliff. Colts 23, Vikings 20
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3)
The Steelers (8-5) are peaking, they’re in control of their playoff destiny and they face a Bengals (5-7-1) team trying not to finish the season with a losing record. Steelers 27, Bengals 20
Sunday Late Game
New Orleans at Arizona (-3)
There are plenty of reasons to pick the Cardinals (5-7-1) here, but I see a bigger reason to pick against them. The Saints (5-8) have Drew Brees in a dome. Arizona has the hollowed-out husk of Carson Palmer. Saints 38, Cardinals 30
San Francisco at Atlanta (-13.5)
I would think that spread would be too high, but I’ve already been fooled once this week. The 49ers (1-12) want to lay down so bad they come to the stadium in their footy pajamas. The Falcons (8-5) are still in a battle for the playoffs and the NFC South. Falcons 31, 49ers 17
New England at Denver (+3)
Here’s my problem. I really think the Broncos (8-5) can win this game. Last year this was just another classic Tom Brady vs Brock Osweiller duel like we’ve become accustomed, but Trevor Siemien is the wild card. But so is this Patriots (11-2) defense since they’ve traded away all their best players. I’ve picked a lot of upsets this week and, frankly, I’m feeling this one too. Dammit. I’m doing it. Broncos 24, Patriots 21
Oakland at San Diego (+3)
The Raiders (10-3) will be out of the cold Sunday against the Chargers (5-8). They need to win to keep it that way. Raiders 27, Chargers 24
Sunday Night
Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)
After two tough road games the Cowboys (11-2) return home to AT&T Stadium where they’ll likely spend all of January. The Bucs (8-5) are legit and fighting for a playoff spot, but there’s a bounce-back ass-stomping coming their way Sunday night. Cowboys 42, Buccaneers 21
Monday Night
Carolina at Washington (-6.5)
The Redskins (7-5-1) have hung around long enough. The Panthers (5-8) are coming to Washington to put them out of their misery. Josh Norman wept. Panthers 31, Redskins 27
This Week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 0-1
Last Week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 7-9
Season
Straight up: 126-80-2
Against the spread: 104-100
To make a wager on this week’s NFL games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
