And so it must finally come to an end. The near-perfect run must conclude, as it always had to, with the crowning of a Super Bowl 50 champion. I sit here with only one blemish on my record, an overtime all-universe performance by Larry Fitzgerald all that kept me from complete perfection. There were plans for a stone sculpture of me to rest outside the Smithsonian after this, carved in exacting detail in all marble, unclothed and anatomically correct. Now all that’s ruined. You can thank Larry Fitzgerald. the jerk.
But this is not a time to look back at the flirtations I made with NFL picks godhood. No, to do so would invite disaster, possibly turn me into a pillar of salt, and bring back memories of Carson Palmer actually winning a playoff game. Frankly, I don’t know which of the three would be worse.
Here’s what you need to focus on before getting to my final pick of the season. I have smoked every other NFL games picker on the internet like a pack of Kools this offseason. In fact, there’s only one guy that’s tied me and it’s ESPN’s Merril Hoge. And our picks for Super Bowl 50 do not match, so this is it. It’s for all the pretend internet and punditry marbles and as I proved on that trip to the emergency room when I was four years-old, I can fit a whole lot of marbles in my mouth.
Super Bowl 50 – Carolina at Denver (+5.5)
It’s the match-up we all wanted, and my “we” I mean everyone, everywhere outside of New England. The NFL wanted this game because it’s a chance for Peyton Manning to pass the NFL presidency torch to Cam Newton. Newton will either take the stage here, the biggest of his life, and be coronated as the new king or Manning will hoist the Lombardi Trophy before calling it a career. Either is a great storyline and, trust me, it’s all Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will be talking about Sunday.
The Panthers (17-1) have been the best team in football since Week One, their only loss a meaningless last-second defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. Once the playoffs started they’ve embarrassed their opponents early in the game, but watched those leads shrink a little in the second half. Against the Arizona Cardinals it didn’t cost them anything. Against the Seattle Seahawks three weeks ago, it nearly did.
The Broncos (14-4) have been a methodical, grinding land-beast all season. Manning has enjoyed the worst season statistically of his career. For the first time since his rookie year of 1998, Manning threw more interceptions than touchdowns and it wasn’t even close. Manning didn’t hit double digits on the TD passes and tossed 17 picks. His quarterback rating of 67.9 is the worst of his life. Even as a rookie he posted a 71.2.
But Manning isn’t showing up to his “last rodeo” by himself. He’s bringing the NFL’s best defense with him. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware have been so dominant in the playoffs they need to immediately be tested for PEDs after every play. Miller’s performance can only be described as “Lawrence Taylor on Tecmo Bowl-esque” and that might not even be enough. Against Cam Newton and the Panthers, Miller and Ware will need to input all the cheat codes they can find.
There’s a reason there’s never been a great football movie. The game itself is more dramatic than anything that could be scripted. The fact that every Sunday something phenomenal happens that would require a crew of stunt men and $10 million in CGI special effects to reproduce makes watching a fake film about it seem ridiculous.
I’ve said it since the playoffs started. I think Peyton Manning’s story is about to wrap up. This game, this time, this moment will give him the chance to write an ending for the ages. I think he’ll do it. Broncos 27, Panthers 24.
Two weeks ago
Straight up: 2-0
Against the spread: 2-0
Playoffs
Straight up: 9-1
Against the spread: 7-3
Overall
Straight up: 150-116
Against the spread: 126-140
