Arizona and Minnesota sparked what should be a pretty good weekend of football for us with a three-point game that came down to the final play, a dramatic sack-fumble from Dwight Freeney. It’s the kind of game, and match-up between teams that don’t play each other a lot, that’ll keep Thursday Night Football on the air forever.
After a disastrous few weeks, I bounced back a bit in my straight up picks, but continue to take a bath against the spread. As usual, I’ll note my survivor pool picks as we go.
Early Games
Buffalo at Philadelphia (even)
Man, the books were really impressed by that Eagles win over the Pats last week. Me? Not so much. Will the LeSean McCoy subplot be a factor in this? The TV crew will try their damnedest to make us care. Bills 20, Eagles 17
San Francisco at Cleveland (-2)
You know what’s crazy? Blaine Gabbert isn’t playing bad at all. Johnny Manziel has four games to keep his job. I don’t think he does it. 49ers 17, Browns 14
Detroit at St. Louis (+3)
This isn’t a “loser leaves town” game just because neither of these coaches should have a job next season. Lions 24, Rams 10
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-4.5)
This is an interesting line and shows how much the Bucs have improved over the course of the season. Still, the Saints can ruin anyone’s day and I think they’ll make the NFC playoff picture a little clearer by screwing up Tampa’s. Saints 34, Bucs 30
Tennessee at New York Jets (-7)
The Jets are fighting for a playoff spot. The Titans are fighting for nothing and any win pretty much ruins their draft position. Since nothing good for either team can come from a Titans victory, to me that all but guarantees it will happen. Titans 24, Jets 23
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-2.5)
The Bengals may not have had success in the playoffs, but one team they’ve seemed to own in the regular season is the Steelers. This is going to be the game of the week and I love that 2.5 points. Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (even)
Gus Bradley is back on the hot seat after two straight losses with the Jags, but this isn’t a team that should be counted on to win any game. They have to learn. The Jaguars are on the upswing and Bradley is a big reason why. No reason to pull the ripcord just yet. And I think you’ll feel a lot better after this game. Jags 26, Colts 19
San Diego at Kansas City (-10)
You might think 10 points is a lot and certainly all of us that took the points Thursday night are already hurting from a double-digit spread, but Mike McCoy is still coaching the Chargers and that’s enough for me to risk it again. Chiefs 30, Chargers 17
Washington at Chicago (-3.5)
The Redskins are still leading the NFC East but no one is fooled. I like the spread. Time to stop playing pretend, Washington. Bears 26, Redskins 17
Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5)
Is this the trap? The Falcons have lost five straight and the Panthers are flirting with perfection. This is exactly the kind of game, and the kind of offensive talent on Atlanta’s side, that can mess it all up. But I’ve picked the Panthers to lose before and regretted it. So this time I’ll just go against the spread. Panthers 31, Falcons 28
Seattle at Baltimore (+11.5)
Speaking of massive spreads, 11.5 is huge but this one shouldn’t scare anybody. Either Matt Schaub will start for the Ravens, which is a guaranteed pick six or Jimmy Clausen will start for Baltimore, in which case he’ll get sacked 17 times. Either way, 11.5 is probably generous. Seahawks 31, Ravens 10
Late Games
Oakland at Denver (-6.5)
Only two late games this week and they’re both pretty good. Just like the Panthers – Falcons game, this one feels awfully trappy, especially with the Broncos in control of home field advantage in the AFC. Still, Denver’s defense alone should be enough to win this game, but I don’t expect it to be easy. Broncos 24, Raiders 20
Dallas at Green Bay (-6.5)
The Packers put themselves on track with an incredible Hail Mary-ending against the Lions. Be a shame to waste it with a let down against the overmatched Cowboys. Packers 34, Cowboys 13
Sunday Night
New England at Houston (+3.5)
Everyone has jumped off the Patriots bandwagon and that’s always nice, but that person-less bandwagon is probably still going to roll over the Texans. Pats 27, Texans 19
Monday Night
New York Giants at Miami (+1)
It’s time for Tom Coughlin to call it a career and that becomes clearer every game the Giants blow with dumb decisions in the fourth quarter. Five of their seven losses right now if you’re keeping count. Giants 28, Dolphins 13
This Week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the Spread: 0-1
Last Week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 6-10
Survivor pool picks: 2-1
Overall
Straight up: 103-88
Against the spread: 89-102
Survivor pool picks: 33-17
